Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Tuesday, August 9, 2016 - #Sobranes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #12


Smoke Impact Summary #12                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                               CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 9th, 2016                                                    Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 7:00 PM                                                                                          Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 67,383 acres and 60% containment.

2.       Yesterday burning expanded estimated growth by 6,924 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Wednesday August 10th  is estimated at

5,000 Acres. This includes:  

a.       2,500 acres for the Burnout operations on the east and southwest sides.

b.      1,250 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

c.       1,250 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.     Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 12,000 acres. This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.    Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 12,000 acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9th.
Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments,
this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

6.     The weather today was primarily influenced by the marine layer. The weather tomorrow
 will be marine layer influenced but may have slow movement north at higher elevations
 when marine layer clears.  Lower elevation burning will increase smoldering combustion.
 It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in Big Sur, Salinas Valley
 and the Carmel Valley for another day. Potential exists for northern communities such as
 Carmel and Monterey to have AQ impacts in the afternoon.
Laureles Grade Rd. vantage point looking approximately S. Plume vertical lift is marginal as it was not able to rise above the inversion and its drift to the E



6.   IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/9 at 7:15 PM



The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner & the SW corner.
 Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur. These are major emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Southern flow aloft will be mild but may push smoke into communities in the north, particularly Salinas and Monterey. IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations, continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions .

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),
and 250 meters (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 9, 2016



24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),
and 250 meter (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 9, 2016.

8.    The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated  
  that this smoke will drift more northerly tomorrow.
Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/9/16 PM.
Smoke from Soberanes continued to move north & east but did not travel as far as past days.
Image appears to compile smoke from multiple fires in California.
1) Green = light,
2) Yellow = medium &
3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture).
These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground.However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9. Smoke transport winds were WSW. The wind speeds were such that the plume did not travel the distance seen yesterday. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel, and Salinas Valley were impacted.  San Joaquin was also impacted. Arrow points to smoke drift line.

Important Note:
Wednesday:
Low clouds and coastal drizzle with the marine layer around 1500 ft. Clouds erode back to the coast by mid-late morning. Wind direction will vary greatly across the fire today with a more southerly influence over Big Sur and a northerly influence over the east, especially over mid and lower elevations. Temperatures and humidities will be within a few degrees of Tuesday’s values.  The marine layer will build back in Wednesday night, but begin to compress as high pressure begins to build over the region.  As a result, a more noticeable drying will occur over the higher peaks Wednesday night. 

Thursday: High pressure ridge is still forecast to build over the region Thu-Fri with warming and drying trend.  The building ridge will also compress the marine layer.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016 - #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #12

Smoke Impact Forecast #12                                                                            Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                                                               CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 9, 2016                                                                        Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio/Steve Fraidenburg
Time: 7:30 AM                                                                                                                          ARA/ARA(t)

Smoke Synopsis:

Yesterday: The Air Quality (AQ) continued to be impaired due to burnout operations and fire growth. Fire growth was estimated at 6,924 acres. At days end Big Sur was the most severely impacted area. Carmel Valley continued to have impacts that made AQ unhealthy. The Salinas Valley communities continued to have degraded AQ.
Today: Smoke impact is anticipated to be moderate for Carmel and northern communities. Early morning smoke is being experienced by some, particularly Carmel Valley and Salinas Valley. This has been factored into the AQ Table. Big Sur is expected to be Very Unhealthy all day.  Carmel Valley is expected to be unhealthy. Communities of Gonzales and Soledad may have some AQ improvement in the afternoon. Greenfield and King City will experience variable AQ throughout the day. Lockwood area AQ is expected to become unhealthy for sensitive groups. Smoke is expected to have greater impact to the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. The northern San Luis Obispo County, especially coastal areas, are being affected by smoke. Changes to AQ today are results of continued burning, forecasted weather, and dispersion models.
Tomorrow: With warmer and drier weather conditions forecasted fire growth and interior burning, smoke production is expected to increase and AQ degrade. This will be most acute at Big Sur.

Air Quality Outlook:

Location
Yesterday
August 8th
Observed
Today
August 9th   
Forecasted
Tomorrow
August 10th   
Forecasted
Comments: Today- Times of impaired air quality are projected below. During these periods Air Quality can be variable.

Santa Cruz
Good
 Good
Good


Gilroy
Good
 Good
Moderate


Hollister
Good
 Good
Moderate


Salinas
Good
Good
Moderate


Toro Park
Good
Good
Moderate


Monterey ARB
Good
Good
Moderate


Carmel River Sch
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Smoke in morning(6am-8am), improving mid-morning

Carmel Valley
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Smoke midnight to 10am, then improving

Gonzales
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Morning smoke, clearing in the afternoon

Soledad
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Smoke in the morning, improving in afternoon

Greenfield
     Moderate
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
Smoke through the day and night

King City
Moderate
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
Smoke through the day and night

SJ Baut
Moderate
Good
Moderate


Fort Ord
Moderate
Good
Moderate


Big Sur
Very Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
Hazardous
Smoke through the day and night

Pacific Grove
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Air quality variable throughout the day

Lockwood
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
Unhealthy
Smoke through the day and night

Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.


*See Air Quality Index Table on next page



AQI Category
(PM2.5 Āµg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself

Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None

Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.

Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
Learn more at:
a)        California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/
b)        Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/
c)        California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/