Monday, September 26, 2016

#LomaFire in the Santa Cruz Mountains


A new wildfire in the Santa Cruz Mountains, named the Loma Fire, is producing a very visible smoke column this afternoon, including to personnel on the Soberanes Fire.

Transport winds in the area look to turn northwesterly overnight, which could potentially create a situation in which some see smoke contributions from both fires.

There are numerous media posts about the fire, including area television stations and the webcam site http://www.morganhillwebcam.com/ and numerous social media posts.

26 Septiembre, 2016 #SoberanesFire, Pronóstico del Humo y Calidad del Aire

Soberanes Fuego 09/26/16
Pronóstico del Humo y Calidad del Aire

Para más información llame al (831) 204-0446


Si el humo está previsto que sea malo en su comunidad, hay cosas que puede hacer para proteger a su familia. Consulte la guía de actividades AQI de recomendaciones para los días llenos de humo, abajo.

Sobre el humo de los incendios forestales

Los incendios forestales producen un humo que podría llegar hasta su comunidad. El humo de los incendios forestales está compuesto de una mezcla de gases y partículas finas. El humo puede lastimar los ojos, irritar el aparato respiratorio y agravar las enfermedades cardiacas y pulmonares crónicas. Puede reducir la exposición a la contaminación. Utilice los pronósticos del humo para esto fuego para planear su actividad. Más información sobre como proteja su familia: www.cdc.gov/spanish/especialescdc/incendiosforestales/.


Text Box: Si el humo está previsto que sea malo en su comunidad, hay cosas que puede hacer para proteger a su familia. Consulte la guía de actividades AQI de recomendaciones para los días llenos de humo, abajo.

Monday, September 26, 2016 #SoberanesFire Smoke Impact Forecast #60

Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #60
Issued: Monday September 26, 2016 0800
Posted by: Jen Croft- ARA & Sean Luchs ARA (t)

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire and other fires.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants and other sources are generally not reflected.


Fire: Current fire acres are 126,913 an increase in 223 acres. Current containment is 78%. Stronger winds on Sunday led to increased fire activity in the fire’s interior and more smoke production. The additional acreage of the fire came from unburned interior areas between Miller Creek and Church Creek. Crews will continue to directly attack the fire today with no firing operations planned.


Air Quality Today: With winds generally from the east late Sunday and into Monday, smoke impacts are more likely to be seen in the coastal communities.  Tassajara, Arroyo Seco, Cachagua should also see higher concentrations, particularly in the late night and morning hours. Very visible nighttime pooling in the Carmel Valley and some nighttime pooling should also be seen in the Salinas Valley as smoke from Sunday settles, particularly in Gonzales and Soledad. Winds today should provide relief for the Salinas Valley late today.

Air Quality Tomorrow:  Winds near the most active part of the fire should become lighter and more northerly, resulting in more significant nighttime pooling of smoke in the Carmel Valley. Some visual impacts may be seen near the coast before lingering smoke kept in the area by terrain disperses.



Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes Fire (midnight to midnight)

Site
Yesterday Observed
24-Hr AQI
September 25, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
September 26, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
September 27, 2016
Best Time of Day
September 26
24–Hr AQI
Carmel River School
Moderate
Moderate
Good
Good all day
Carmel Valley
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Cachagua
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Mid-day/early afternoon
Big Sur
Good
Moderate
Good
Mid-day
Tassajara
Moderate
Moderate
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Arroyo Seco
No Monitor
Moderate
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Gonzales
Good
Moderate
Good
Afternoon
Soledad
Moderate
Moderate
Good
Afternoon
Greenfield
Good
Good
Good
Mid-day/early afternoon
King City
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Lockwood
Good
Good
Good
Good all day

Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.


For more information, please call the Soberanes Fire Information Line at (831) 204-0446
Forecasted Air Quality Map                                                 



  
Use the Air Quality Index to plan your activities
The Air Quality Index (AQI) is a measure used for reporting daily air quality. It tells you how clean or polluted your air is for the day, and what associated health effects might be a concern.
Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/


Smoke column trends through the afternoon of September 25 as seen by satellite

Photograph of smoke column activity from the afternoon of September 25



 
NOAA Hysplit projected trajectories from releases at heights of 100 meters , 500 meters, and 1000 m.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

UPDATE: Sunday, September 25, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #59





Strengthening winds have increased internal fire activity on the Soberanes fire this afternoon, resulting in greater smoke production. Southwesterly winds are bringing this smoke to the northeast and the Salinas Valley. Air quality, which has been good so far this morning, can be expected to degrade into moderate or unhealthy for sensitive groups tonight in Gonzales, Soledad, and Greenfield.

Analysis shows that this increased fire activity is between Church Creek and Miller Creek, and the area impacted by smoke. :


The smoke has also been visible on weather radar and on satellite this afternoon




Sunday, September 25, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #59




Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #59

Issued: Sunday September 25, 2016 0800
Posted by: Jen Croft- ARA & Sean Luchs ARA (t)

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire and other fires.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants and other sources are generally not reflected.

Fire: Current fire acres are 126,693 a decrease in 260 acres due to improved interior mapping. Current containment is 77%. Successful suppression efforts and change in assessment of risk has shifted strategy to limit burnout operations and go direct along the interior perimeters as much as possible.
Air Quality Today: Today we expect light winds from the ENE. Tassajara, Arroyo Seco and Cachagua will continue to see night time pooling and day time relief.  Activities and events along the Coastal communities can expect some light visual some impacts today, expect evening hours to settle smoke into the valleys as the marine layer moves back onshore.
Air Quality Tomorrow:  Potential for a ESE transport wind to pair with a ENE surface wind late Sunday and into Monday, smoke impacts are likely to move out to the coastal communities and then disperse along the coastline terrain features.  Tassajara, Arroyo Seco, Cachagua, Big Sur, and Pacific Grove communities are likely to be the zones of highest concentrations, with very visible nighttime pooling in the Carmel Valley.
Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes Fire (midnight to midnight)
Site
Yesterday Observed
24-Hr AQI
September 24, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
September 25, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
September 26, 2016
Best Time of Day
September 25
24–Hr AQI
Carmel River School
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Carmel Valley
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Cachagua
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Mid-day
Big Sur
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Tassajara
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Arroyo Seco
No Monitor
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Gonzales
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Soledad
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Greenfield
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
King City
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Lockwood
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.

For more information, please call the Soberanes Fire Information Line at (831) 204-0446
Forecast Map for September 25. Cachagua looks to see moderate air quality, and expectations are for Tassajara and Arroyo Seco to see air quality that is unhealthy for sensitive groups


Use the Air Quality Index to plan your activities

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is a measure used for reporting daily air quality. It tells you how clean or polluted your air is for the day, and what associated health effects might be a concern.
A description of the air quality descriptors. From least impact to greatest impact, these are: good, moderate, unhealthy for sensitive groups, unhealthy, very unhealthy, and hazardous


Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Big Sur- http://www.nepenthebigsur.com/images/b.jpg
California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/
AirNow - http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.main

A picture of the E-BAM air quality sampler, and also a picture of its samples, with the different air quality levels annotated

A satellite image of smoke from the fire yesterday. Smoke was light enough to be not very visible to the satellite
An image showing areas of smoke impact from the fire, extending mainly to the south of the fire area