Tuesday, August 9, 2016 - #Sobranes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #12

Smoke Impact Summary #12                             Soberanes Wildfire

Air Basin: North Central Coast                                               CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS

Issued for August 9^th, 2016                                                    Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA

Time 7:00 PM                                                                                          Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 67,383 acres and 60% containment.

2.       Yesterday burning expanded estimated growth by 6,924 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Wednesday August 10^th  is estimated at

5,000 Acres. This includes:  

a.       2,500 acres for the Burnout operations on the east and southwest sides.

b.      1,250 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

c.       1,250 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.     Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 12,000 acres. This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9^th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.    Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 12,000 acres.

This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9^th.

Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments,

this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

6.     The weather today was primarily influenced by the marine layer. The weather tomorrow

 will be marine layer influenced but may have slow movement north at higher elevations

 when marine layer clears.  Lower elevation burning will increase smoldering combustion.

 It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in Big Sur, Salinas Valley

 and the Carmel Valley for another day. Potential exists for northern communities such as

 Carmel and Monterey to have AQ impacts in the afternoon.

Laureles Grade Rd. vantage point looking approximately S. Plume vertical lift is marginal as it was not able to rise above the inversion and its drift to the E

6.   IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/9 at 7:15 PM

The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner & the SW corner.

 Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur. These are major emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Southern flow aloft will be mild but may push smoke into communities in the north, particularly Salinas and Monterey. IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations, continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions .

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),

and 250 meters (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 9, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),

and 250 meter (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 9, 2016.

8.    The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated  

  that this smoke will drift more northerly tomorrow.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/9/16 PM.

Smoke from Soberanes continued to move north & east but did not travel as far as past days.

Image appears to compile smoke from multiple fires in California.

1) Green = light,

2) Yellow = medium &

3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture).

These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground.However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9. Smoke transport winds were WSW. The wind speeds were such that the plume did not travel the distance seen yesterday. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel, and Salinas Valley were impacted.  San Joaquin was also impacted. Arrow points to smoke drift line.

Important Note:

Wednesday:

Low clouds and coastal drizzle with the marine layer around 1500 ft. Clouds erode back to the coast by mid-late morning. Wind direction will vary greatly across the fire today with a more southerly influence over Big Sur and a northerly influence over the east, especially over mid and lower elevations. Temperatures and humidities will be within a few degrees of Tuesday’s values.  The marine layer will build back in Wednesday night, but begin to compress as high pressure begins to build over the region.  As a result, a more noticeable drying will occur over the higher peaks Wednesday night. 

Thursday: High pressure ridge is still forecast to build over the region Thu-Fri with warming and drying trend.  The building ridge will also compress the marine layer.