Monday, August 1, 2016

Monday, August 1,2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #3

Smoke Impact Forecast #4                                                  Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                                            CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 1st, 2016                                                                                   Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio
Time: 11:18 AM                                                                                                                                Air Resource Advisor

Smoke Synopsis:
Yesterday: The acres contributing to the fire emissions increased 2,707 acres. At the day’s end Carmel River School was the most severely impacted station as was the Carmel Valley. The geographic position of the Valley in relation to the fire and natural diurnal surface wind flow will sustain this impact. The Salinas Valley communities tend pick up their poorest AQ from 11AM to 2PM. All stations did experience degraded air quality with the exception of Santa Cruz.
Today: Smoke impact is anticipated to be significantly higher. The suppression effort is planning to conduct a burnout operation. This operation is planned for each day thru Thursday.  This increased smoke production has been factored into the AQ Table. Carmel River School & the Carmel Valley are expected to be the most impacted areas. The heaviest smoke will reside in the Coastal Range and above the marine layer.  The upper level drift smoke will continue impacting San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. Lower layered smoke will be in the Carmel & Salinas Valleys. It is expected to affect northern communities and communities to the East and SE of the fire for the next several days.  The influence of the South/Southwest airflow remains.
Tomorrow: Expect elevated smoke levels. Degraded AQ is to last through the week.

Air Quality Outlook:
Location
Yesterday
July 31st
Observed
Today
August1st  
Forecasted
Tomorrow
August 2nd   
Forecasted
Comments:  The time of day for “Most Unpleasant AQ Times” is projected below. During this periods of trends for AQ can be variable.

Santa Cruz
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(midnight to 10AM)

Gilory
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(7am to 2pm)

Hollister
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(7AM to 3PM)

Salinas
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(8am to 1PM)

Toro Park
Good
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
(5AM to 5PM)

Monterey ARB
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
Unhealthy SG
(5AM to 5PM)

Carmel RiverSch
Unhealthy SG
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
 (midnight to 10AM)/ (6PM to midnight)

Carmel Valley
Moderate
Unhealthy SG
Unhealthy SG
(6AM to 2PM)

Gonzales
Good
Moderate
 Moderate
(6AM to 4PM)

Soledad
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(6AM to 4PM)

Greenfield
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
(6AM to 4PM)

King City
Good
Moderate
Moderate
(6AM to 4PM)

Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.




AQI Category
(PM2.5 Āµg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself

Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None

Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.

Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
Learn more at:
        a) California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/ 
        b) Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/
        c) California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/

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