Monday, August 1, 2016 - Air Quality Forecast for the Lakes Fire - Yosemite National Park

Air Quality Forecast for the Lakes Fire at Yosemite National Park     Issue Date: 8/1/16
Prepared by: Jim McNitt, Air Resource Specialist Yosemite National Park, 209-379-1422
This notice is intended to provide the public with information about patterns, timing, and intensity of smoke so that people can minimize their exposure.
Overview:  The Lakes Fire, is burning in the Chilnualna Lakes area, between Turner Meadow and Buena Vista Peak at about 8,000 feet in a designated wilderness area. It is a lightning-caused fire that is being monitored and managed for multiple objectives. Managing fires that are started by lightning reduces the risk of high intensity fires and benefits the ecosystem.
Smoke from wildfires outside of the park has elevated the levels of particulate matter (PM) to the Moderate level.  Current Fire Conditions:  On 7/30/16 the fire was 35 acres and creeping and smoldering in Red Fir timber, duff, and down and dead wood. Current weather and dispersion conditions:  A high pressure ridge continues to cause poor dispersion conditions. A temperature inversion and downslope winds are causing some smoke to settle down the Chilnualna drainage at night and early morning. Smoke from the Lakes Fire is adding to the smoke transported from fires to the west.  There could be periods of time when the particulate matter levels are in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range during the morning. A strong temperature inversion is trapping campfire smoke in Yosemite Valley.
Outlook for weather and dispersion:  Smoke dispersion should improve after the middle of the week as the ridge weakens. Expect fair smoke dispersion Wednesday, then good conditions Thursday and Friday.
Site	Today	Tomorrow		Tomorrow	Details for avoiding smoke during the worst hours of the day
	8/1/2016	8/2/2016		8/2/2016
	Expected Air Quality 24 hr average	Expected Air Quality 24 hr average (worst time of the day )		BEST hours of day using the AirNow Nowcast criteria
El Portal	Moderate	Moderate (morning)		Moderate (afternoon)	People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion in the morning. Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion in the morning.
Yosemite West	Moderate	Moderate (morning)		Moderate (afternoon)
Wawona	Moderate	Moderate (morning)		Moderate (afternoon)
Fish Camp	Moderate	Moderate (morning)		Moderate (afternoon)
Yosemite Valley	Moderate	Moderate (morning)		Moderate (afternoon)
Disclaimer: Fire activity and weather can change quickly and data from monitors can lag by 1 - 2 hrs. These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity, model output, and raw data from automated air monitors.  Air Quality Index (AQI) values for sites without air monitors are estimated.
AQI Index			Actions to Protect Yourself
Good			None
Moderate			Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG)			People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy			The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy			Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous			The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Links:
Air Monitor Data                                    http://www.wildlandfiresmoke.net/monitoring/
California Smoke Blog                          http://www.californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com
Air Districts                                            http://www.arb.ca.gov/capcoa/roster.htm
AirNow (AQI forecasts and nowcasts, AQI definitions, and guidance for the public)                                                                      https://www.airnow.gov/