Friday, September 9, 2016

Thursday September 8, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #20

Smoke Impact Summary #20                                    Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                 Alaska IMT Type 1
Issued for September 8th, 2016                                                Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                                 

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       September 8th the total fire acreage was estimated at 102,499 acres.

2.       There was an additional 1009 acres of new fire growth.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Friday September 9th is again estimated at 1,500 acres. This includes: 
a.       650 acres are expected for possible continued Burnout operations on the southwest side near Anderson Peak. This burnout was not conducted today. Hopefully, it will be exercised tomorrow.  
b.      850 acres free burning on the south and southeast fire perimeter. This includes the North Fork, Willow, and Arrow Seco Creek areas. These areas were very active today as well as Zig Zag Creek and Cienego Creek.

VIIRS Satellite imagery 9:15 PM 9/8/16 shows the areas of major smoke production.
These are the red dot squares. These heat signatures were recorded in the last 6 hours. Yellow contours are scattered heat signatures from IR Flight from the previous night.

4.     Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is estimated at 10,000 acres. This growth is projected from September 7th through September 14th. It is expected to update this outlook in next day or so.  The burnout from Anderson Peak to Marble Peak was not conducted. This will be re-examined by Operation’s for September 9th. Fire runs did occur along various parts of the fire’s edge and were captured by VIIRS with Zig Zag being the most active.

5.    The weather and active burning in several drainages periodically degraded AQ through the course of the day. This pattern is expected to be repeated on Friday as the weather is the same for another day. However, the exception is the Transport Wind Direction. It will be northeast. This should keep the fire advance in check in active creek drainages on the fire’s east side.  The exception is the Zig Zag drainage at the fire’s SE corner. This is where a majority of fire growth and smoke production is expected. Photos below show smoke that is a soupy veil that lingered within the Coastal Range with active burning at higher elevations in the mid-morning hours.

6.   IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 9/7 at 5:15 PM
IR Flight heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat (red shaded areas) cannot seen as they are behind the Modis red squares & dots. IR Flight scattered heat are the yellow shaded areas. The Southern part of the fire’s perimeter has the most intense heat. This is where the fire expansion is occurring. Most of the smoke impact was kept to the interior of the Coastal Range before moving S and merging with other wildfire smoke plumes.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories on September 8 starting at 11:00 AM. Major source area is Zig Zag Creek. The initial E to W directional flow before turning SE, contributed to canceling burnout operation.

         12 Hour trajectory for 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red).

   8.The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below from NOAA Hazard Mapping System for September 8th, 2016. Several smoke plumes generated from different fires were able to merge over certain areas of the state. NOAA Hazard Mapping System shaded areas represent three types of smoke: Light (green), Medium (yellow) and Red (dense). These colors are not defined by their height above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence. 

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