Saturday, September 10, 2016

Friday September 9, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #21

Smoke Impact Summary #21                                     Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                 Alaska IMT Type 1
Issued for September 9th, 2016                                                 Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                                 

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       September 9th the total fire acreage was reported at 103,242 acres.

2.       There was an additional 743 acres of new fire growth from the previous day.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow morning, Friday September 10th is again estimated at 1,500 acres. This includes: 
a.       650 acres for the burnout operation. This is along the Coastal Ridge Rd between Anderson Peak and Marble Peak. This was not carried out for the 2nd straight day but it is still planned to accomplish.

b.      850 acres for active burning fire on the south and southeast fire perimeter. This includes the North Fork, Willow, and Arrow Seco Creek areas. These areas were active today as well as Zig Zag Creek and Cienega Creek.  It was described as a lazy day for fire growth as much of the smoke produced remained in the Coastal Range.Winds were light and the air was stable.  There was a very narrow burning window. The time of slightly unstable air was short lived. It only lasted from 2 PM to 5 PM.

VIIRS & MODIS Satellite imageries 6:45 PM 9/9/16 shows the areas of major smoke production, red dot squares. These heat signatures were recorded in the last 6 hours. The fire perimeter is from the previous night’s IR Flight.
4.      Extended Outlook for the next 7 days, September 9 – 15, concerning “future smoke emission acreage” has been amended to 9,000 acres. Concerning the Long Term Outlook which greater than 2 weeks, the “big box” encompasses 51,200 acres.

5.      The weather and ongoing active burning in several drainages periodically degraded AQ through the course of the day. Between active and residual smoke, this was observed at Lockwood, Tassajara, Big Sur and Carmel (Cachagua). This pattern is expected to change on Saturday, September 10th. There is more instability and associated wind speed and gustiness. This will improve smoke dispersion but also provide the opportunity for increased smoke production. Surface smoke will be driven by topography and as it elevates have an affinity to move south parallel to the coast. Photo below shows a very soupy smoke that was unable to elevate in the mid-morning hours. Escape from the Coastal Range was labored and more will come from nighttime drainage flow.


6.      IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 9/7 at 5:15 PM
IR Flight heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat (red shaded areas) cannot be seen. They are behind the Modis red squares & dots. IR Flight for scattered heat is represented by yellow shaded areas. The Southern part of the fire’s perimeter continues to the most active. Most of the smoke impact was kept to the interior of the Coastal Range before slowing spreading out as indicated by NOAA Hazard Mapping System.

7.   Soberanes Fire Trajectories on September 9 starting at 11:00 AM top and 3:00 PM. Major smoke source is Zig Zag Creek. The trajectory point is Marble Peak. This is a potential tie in point for the burnout operation from Anderson Peak. 12 Hour trajectory for 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 500 meters (red) with height labelled in meters.

             8. The potential horizontal extent of smoke from the Soberanes Fire and others as displayed below
   by the NOAA Hazard Mapping System for September 9th, 2016 (PM). Smoke plumes generated from different fires merge. NOAA Hazard Mapping System shaded areas represent three types of smoke: Light (green), Medium (yellow) and Red (dense). These colors are not defined by their height above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal expanse of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

No comments:

Post a Comment