Sunday, September 25, 2016

Sunday, September 25, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #59




Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #59

Issued: Sunday September 25, 2016 0800
Posted by: Jen Croft- ARA & Sean Luchs ARA (t)

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire and other fires.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants and other sources are generally not reflected.

Fire: Current fire acres are 126,693 a decrease in 260 acres due to improved interior mapping. Current containment is 77%. Successful suppression efforts and change in assessment of risk has shifted strategy to limit burnout operations and go direct along the interior perimeters as much as possible.
Air Quality Today: Today we expect light winds from the ENE. Tassajara, Arroyo Seco and Cachagua will continue to see night time pooling and day time relief.  Activities and events along the Coastal communities can expect some light visual some impacts today, expect evening hours to settle smoke into the valleys as the marine layer moves back onshore.
Air Quality Tomorrow:  Potential for a ESE transport wind to pair with a ENE surface wind late Sunday and into Monday, smoke impacts are likely to move out to the coastal communities and then disperse along the coastline terrain features.  Tassajara, Arroyo Seco, Cachagua, Big Sur, and Pacific Grove communities are likely to be the zones of highest concentrations, with very visible nighttime pooling in the Carmel Valley.
Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes Fire (midnight to midnight)
Site
Yesterday Observed
24-Hr AQI
September 24, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
September 25, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
September 26, 2016
Best Time of Day
September 25
24–Hr AQI
Carmel River School
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Carmel Valley
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Cachagua
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Mid-day
Big Sur
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Tassajara
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Arroyo Seco
No Monitor
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Gonzales
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Soledad
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Greenfield
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
King City
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Lockwood
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.

For more information, please call the Soberanes Fire Information Line at (831) 204-0446
Forecast Map for September 25. Cachagua looks to see moderate air quality, and expectations are for Tassajara and Arroyo Seco to see air quality that is unhealthy for sensitive groups


Use the Air Quality Index to plan your activities

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is a measure used for reporting daily air quality. It tells you how clean or polluted your air is for the day, and what associated health effects might be a concern.
A description of the air quality descriptors. From least impact to greatest impact, these are: good, moderate, unhealthy for sensitive groups, unhealthy, very unhealthy, and hazardous


Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Big Sur- http://www.nepenthebigsur.com/images/b.jpg
California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/
AirNow - http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.main

A picture of the E-BAM air quality sampler, and also a picture of its samples, with the different air quality levels annotated

A satellite image of smoke from the fire yesterday. Smoke was light enough to be not very visible to the satellite
An image showing areas of smoke impact from the fire, extending mainly to the south of the fire area





                                                            


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