Smoke Impact Summary #6 Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast CAL
Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 3rd, 2016 Prepared
by: Gary M. Curcio (ARA)
Time 10:00 PM Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 45,800 acres.
2.
Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 2,300
acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact tomorrow is estimated at 7,000 acres this includes:
a.
4,000 acres for the Burnout operation on
the east side of the fire
b.
2,000 acres free burning on the southern
fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)
c.
1,000 acres free burning where the fire
crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
4. Extended outlook for smoke emissions is 13,000 acres as a result of the fire crossing Little Sur.
Photo
above: IR fire perimeter & MODIS heat signatures
The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner where a major burnout operation is being conducted. The S side of the fire growth continues to occur. All three sections of fire perimeter are the major emission sources. These continue to impact Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. The current burnout operation is projected to be completed by the end of Thursday’s shift. The two free burn areas will require line preparation work before burnout operations can be considered.
 |
Photo above: IR Flight from last night 8/2
|
|
IR heat intensity is very similar to the previous night.
It still identifies areas of intense heat (red shading & white arrows),
scattered heat (yellow shading) and isolated heat spots (red dots). These
heat intensities are numerous sources of emissions and in combination with
the burnout operation continue to affect AQ in local communities.
|
5. Soberanes Fire Trajectories for each major source emission
source
|
48 Hour
trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 Meters (blue) and
250 Meters (red) from start point near the South Fork of the Little Sur
River.
 |
|
48 Hour
trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and
250 meters (red) from start point near Uncle Sam Mtn.
 |
|
48 Hour
trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and
250 meters (red) from start point near Pociano Ridge.
|
6.
The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its
long range drift are displayed below. It
is anticipated that
this smoke will turn more to the SE as the night time progresses.
|
Photo: NOAA
Hazard Mapping System - 8/3/16 PM.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red =
dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not
defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable
information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and
its zone of influence.
|
7.
Smoke transport tomorrow will begin with Westerly winds at the lower levels with
variable upperlevels SW – W – NW through the course of day. Thereby fanning a wide zone of influence. The Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys
were impacted by the burnout operation as captured by the visible satellite
image. The penetration into the San Joaquin Valley was via Carrizo Plain /
Bakersfield at its southern end.
|
Important Note:
With the incoming
weather starting tomorrow night and on Friday: the deepening of the Marine
layer, increasing RH, generally light upper winds & cooling surface and
upper air temperatures, this can serve to decrease fire behavior. This in
turn can possibly reduce smoke over the next 2 days. This potential impact
will be assessed tomorrow.
|
No comments:
Post a Comment