Saturday, August 20, 2016

Saturday August 20, 2016 #Sobranesfire Smoke Impact Forecast


Air Quality Report                                                                                                        Issue Date: 08/20/2016
Soberanes FIre                                                                                                                   Posted by:  Jen Croft
Forecast-23

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants are not reflected.
Fire:  Moderate fire activity today associated with backing fire along the southern edge towards the river drainage, and perimeter burnout operations to maintain the containment of the western flank.  Current perimeter is 83,830 acres, with 2,434 new acres. Current containment is reported at 60%.
Air Quality Today: Predicted light North winds did arrive over the fire area late evening, providing some relief to the Carmel & Salinas Valleys.  The smoke from the active fire edge will settle over the Carmel Valley and Tassajara Hot Springs area most of the day, moving to towards the Chimney fire area and Santa Maria by late evening.  Predicted North winds will continue to clear smoke away from the Salinas Valley, and eventually offshore providing some limited relief to all locations this evening.   
Air Quality Tomorrow:  Early onshore flow will push the smoke impacts back towards the coastline in the early hours, however the predicted winds should lift and transport most of the smoke offshore and to the south towards San Luis Obispo.
Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes fire
Site
Yesterday Observed
Midnight-Midnight
24-Hr AQI
August 19, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
August 20, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
August 21, 2016
Best Time of Day
August 20
AQI and 24 hr. Period
Santa Cruz
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Gilroy
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Hollister
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Monterey AFB
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Carmel River School
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Carmel Valley
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Gonzales
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Soledad
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Greenfield
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
King City
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
SJ Bautista
 Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Tassajara Hot Springs
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
USG
Some relief in the evening
Big Sur
Unhealthy
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Pacific Grove
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.
AQI Index
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good
                                                                                          None
Moderate
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - USG
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy           
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/


Smoke trajectories for today-  In yellow is the smoke dispersion for this morning to early afternoon until the marine layer lifts.  As the afternoon progresses, the North winds will move smoke along the coastline as far as Santa Maria.  This evening, the offshore floor will push the smoke off into the Pacific.

BlueSky PM 2.5 Smoke Impact Forecast for 08/21/16- Darker red areas are higher concentrations of PM 2.5.  Note scale on the lower left.

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