Thursday, September 10, 2015

Thursday, September 10, 2015 - Rough Fire Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Air Quality Report                                                                                             Issue Date:09/10/2015
Rough Fire                                                                                                  Prepared by:  Tod Johnson

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Rough Fire.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants are not reflected.
Fire:  Fire activity increased yesterday with warmer temperatures and lower relative humidity. Smoke produced was from the continued burning of  interior islands and as a result of continued fire uphill fire spread in the Mill Creek and Verplank creek drainages east of Grant Grove. The fire is 104629 acres and remains at 31% contained.   
Air Quality Today: Heavy concentrations of smoke are expected near the fire today.  Smoke will be slow to lift and transport will be primarily terrain and diurnally driven. Limited ventilation is forecast for today with continued increased impacts expected in the San Joaquin Valley west and southwest of fire. Residual smoke that has not cleared the area will add to impacts from new smoke being produced.  Unhealthy to Hazardous conditions are expected in communities near the fire.       
Air Quality Tomorrow: Impacts lower elevations impacts are intensified by poor ventilation south of the incident. Air quality in the Owens valley improves.

Smoke Impacts from Local Fires
Site
Yesterday Observed
Midnight-Midnight
24-Hr AQI
September 9, 2015
Today Forecast
24-Hr AQI
September 10, 2015
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
September 11, 2015
Best Time of Day
September 10
AQI and Period
Trimmer
USG
Hazardous
Hazardous
Morning to early afternoon
Prather
USG
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Morning to early afternoon
Shaver Lake

Moderate
USG
Noon to late afternoon
Oakhurst
Moderate
USG
USG
Evening to midnight
Wishon Reservoir
USG
USG
Unhealthy
Evening to midnight
Hume Lake
Very Unhealthy
Hazardous
Very Unhealthy
Early afternoon
Cedar Grove
No data
Hazardous
Hazardous
Unhealthy morming
Grant Grove
Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
Unhealthy, Midnight to  Noon
Dunlap/Squaw Val.

USG
Very Unhealthy
Morning to early afternoon
Mammoth Lakes
Moderate
USG
Moderate
Afternoon through evening
Aspendell
USG
USG
Good
Afternoon through evening
Bishop
Moderate
Good
Good
Afternoon through evening
Big Pine

Moderate
Good
Afternoon through evening
Independence

Moderate
Good
Afternoon through evening
Pinehurst
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
USG morning to mid afternoon
Montecito-Sequoia Lodge
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Very Unhealthy
USG morning to mid afternoon
Lodgepole
Moderate
Moderate
Very Unhealthy
early morning to mid afternoon
Three Rivers
Moderate
Moderate
Very Unhealthy
early morning to mid afternoon
Ash Mountain
Moderate
Moderate
Very Unhealthy
early morning to mid afternoon
Kernville
Moderate
Good
Good
Good
Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.
AQI Index
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good
                                                                                          None
Moderate
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - USG
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy           
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy

Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
 View of the fire:  Buck Rock Web Camera #3, http://rockyags.cr.usgs.gov/dashboards/WebCam.htm
San Joaquin Air Pollution Control District - http://valleyair.org/wildfires.htm
Interagency Real Time Smoke Monitoring - http://app.airsis.com/usfs/fleet.aspx

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