California Smoke Information: Tuesday, August 18, 2015 - Shasta-Trinity & Six Rivers Complexes

Tuesday, August 18, 2015 Issued on August 18, 2015

Shasta-Trinity & Six Rivers Complexes Mike Broughton & Jen Croft

Smoke Impact Report – Shasta-Trinity/Six Rivers National Forest August 18, 2015.

A) Fire growth

Complex Names	Fire Growth Yesterday	Total Acre
Fork Complex	1047 Acres	34,403 Acres
Mad River Complex	2626 Acres	24,831 Acres
River Complex	3704 Acres	43,149 Acres
Route Complex	2626 Acres	31,487 Acres
South Complex	671 Acres	21,629 Acres
Gasquet Complex	1614 Acres	6,465 Acres
Nickowtiz Fires	447 Acres	3,302 Acres
Total	10,870 Acres	161,194 Acres

Information came from Infrared Flights

B) Weather

High pressure is continues to dominate Northern California today and tomorrow. As a result, transport wind speed is very weak. A weak upper level trough will move through the area Wednesday evening through Friday. Smoke dispersion may be improved slightly then.

C) Fire Behavior

Fire Behavior Analysts at the Complexes are predicting excellent burn conditions as the inversion breaks. Short range spotting may increase as the weak disturbance allows for column lifting.

D) Smoke

Combined fire growth in the Tri-County area was the largest to date, contributing to poor air quality conditions across the area. Consideration for sensitive groups, extended exposure times, and activity levels for those within the hazardous forecast zones should be made. Smoke dispersion will be limited today, with some relief tomorrow as the weak transport winds approach. Air quality is not likely to improve until later in the week, especially in the Tri-County area.

Weak Northwesterly transport wind pushes smoke to the Southeast today and tomorrow (Figures 1,3). Overnight, smoke is likely to settle down in river drainages, but is pushed slightly to the west (Figures 2,4). The displayed model runs did not cover fires in Southern Oregon. With a southerly flow, Crescent City, Gasquet, Happy Camp, Yreka, Etna and Mt. Shasta may be impacted by smoke from these fires that are not included in this particular model run.

Figure 1: Bluesky run for 6pm on August 18, 2015.

Figure 2: Bluesky run for 6am on August 19, 2015

Figure 3: Bluesky run for 6pm on August 19, 2015

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke. Contributions from ozone and other pollutants are not reflected.

Smoke Synopsis: (revised 1040 am)
Yesterday smoke remained entrenched in most of the deep Humboldt and Trinity County river valleys, conditions which are expected to persist through Wednesday afternoon. The ridge of high pressure continues to sit over northern California, again limiting smoke dispersion from area fires until late afternoon. A weak upper-air low pressure trough will begin to affect the area late Wednesday, with a bit more clearing and smoke dispersion through Friday before the high pressure ridge returns for the weekend. Coastal sections may see a return of a marine layer today and tomorrow, enhanced with the fine smoke particles, but inland valleys are expected to remain choked by residual and newly produced smoke. The northern Sacramento Valley and western Siskiyou County should also begin to see some increased smoke impacts, while smoke aloft will be evident over much of the rest of northern California. Fire behavior increased a little Monday afternoon in extremely hot and dry conditions, which is also expected to persist the next couple days.

Air Quality Outlook: Shasta-Trinity & Six Rivers Complexes
Site	Tuesday August 18, 2015	Wednesday August 19, 2015	Thursday August 20, 2015	Comments
Crescent City	Moderate	Moderate	Good
Gasquet	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Happy Camp	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Moderate
Etna	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Moderate
Mt. Shasta	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Tulelake	Moderate	Moderate	Good
Yreka	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Eureka	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Some inland canyons may see higher concentrations of smoke.
Hoopa	Very Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy
Mad River/Dinsmore	Very Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy
Orleans	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Weitchpec	Unhealthy	Unhealthy	Unhealthy
Willow Creek	Hazardous	Hazardous	Very Unhealthy	Worst conditions in the early afternoon, improving towards evening.
Burnt Ranch	Hazardous	Hazardous	Very Unhealthy	Conditions improve mid-afternoon into the evening hours.
Hayfork	Hazardous	Hazardous	Hazardous	Conditions tend to worsen as the morning progresses, then improve throughout the afternoon into early evening.
Hyampom	Hazardous	Hazardous	Hazardous	Worst conditions in the morning, improving by mid-afternoon into the early evening.
Weaverville	Unhealthy	USG	USG	Best in the afternoon.
Anderson/Redding	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate
Disclaimer: Forecast conditions represent air quality levels affected by fine particulates; contribution from ozone and other pollutants is not reflected. Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity. Sensitive groups including individuals with asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke, see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools. If it is smoky outside, you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.

AQI Index

Actions to Protect Yourself

Good

None

Moderate

Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - USG

People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.

Unhealthy

The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

Very Unhealthy

Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

Hazardous

The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

Links:

AirNow - http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.local_state&stateid=5&tab=0

California Smoke Information Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/

North Coast Unified AQMD - http://www.ncuaqmd.org/

Shasta County APCD - http://www.co.shasta.ca.us/index/drm_index/aq_index.aspx

Siskiyou County APCD - http://www.co.siskiyou.ca.us/content/agriculture-air-pollution-control-district

Smoke Monitoring - http://smoke.airfire.org/monitoring/#/

Wildfire Smoke – A Guide for Public Health Official from California Air Resource Board