Thursday, August 11, 2016

Thursday, August 11, 2016 - #Sobranes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #14

Smoke Impact Summary #14                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                       CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 11th, 2016                                            Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time 7:00 PM                                                                                         

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 69,837 acres and 55% containment.

2.       Burning expanded estimated growth by 1,139 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Thursday, August 11th  is estimated at 1,500

 Acres. This includes:

a.       500 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

b.      500 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

c.       500 acres from burnout operations

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 11,000 acres.

This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9thDepending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.      The weather today was influenced by the marine layer and an arriving high pressure system.

 The weather tomorrow will be marine layer influenced but may have slow movement north at higher elevations when marine layer clears.  Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevation burning may continue to be smoldering combustion.  It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in most area communities for at least another day.

Looking E up the Carmel Valley from the Laureles Grade Road at approximately 15:00. Lift and ventilation is marginal.

6.      Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/11 at 6:00 PM

The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s S edgeMop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations. These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Southern flow aloft will be mild but may push smoke into communities in the north, particularly Salinas and Monterey.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 11, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Elephant Mtn.  ran from 1400 on August 11, 2016.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/11/16 PM.
No image for Soberanes Fire today.
1) Green = light,
2) Yellow = medium &
3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture).
These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9.     Smoke transport winds were from the south on the west side of the fire and from the northwest on the east side of the fire.  This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. Nearly all communities in the vicinity of the fire were impacted with smoke today.San Joaquin was also impacted.

Important Note:
The warming and drying observed on Thursday will continue as high pressure builds. The most notable change will occur away from the immediate coast/Hwy 1 and over higher elevations.  Relatively light southerly flow will prevail during the morning becoming more northerly by the afternoon, especially near Big Sur.  The marine layer will move inland again in the evening, but recoveries over higher elevations will be poor. Lack of strong transport winds will make for lingering smoke through the day.
 The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend. Areas removed from the marine
 layer will likely see the hottest conditions since last week. Overnight humidity recoveries will be poor over the upper slopes and ridges.

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