Saturday, October 22, 2016

Saturday, October 22, 2016: Mariposa Grove Prescribed Fire Project Smoke Effects Forecast #5

Yosemite National Park
Prepared: 10/22/16         Prepared by:  Jim McNitt, Air Resource Specialist

Overview: The 2016 Mariposa Grove prescribed fire project is comprised of 148 acres. By maintaining fire in the Mariposa Grove, both fuels reduction and ecological goals can be achieved.  The Mariposa Grove is closed to the public for the Mariposa Grove restoration project. Operations Summary: Ignitions started on Sunday, 10/2/16 when 31 acres were burned. Another 44 acres were burned on 10/12/16 – 10/13/16. An additional 55 acres of ignitions are planned for today and tomorrow. Smoke Synopsis: Smoke transport and dispersion will be fair to good today and poor at night. Smoke will be transported to the north during the day on Saturday and Sunday. Some smoke will settle in the Wawona area tonight under a surface temperature inversion.  Outlook: An upper trough deepening off the West Coast will bring stronger winds and  increased vertical mixing tomorrow.
Location
10/21/16
Observed*
Day 1
10/22/16 Forecasted
Day 2
10/23/16
Forecasted
Details for avoiding smoke during the worst hours of the day. Ignitions are planned for Day 1.
Wawona
Good
Good
Moderate
Smoke could flow down  the South Fork Merced River overnight and settle in Wawona by the early morning. People with heart or lung disease, childrern and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. Highest levels of PM2.5 will be between 2 AM and noon. Smoke will disperse as the temperature inversion breaks down (by noon).
El Portal
Good
Good
Good

Yosemite Valley
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Campfire smoke and any smoke from wildland fires will be trapped under a surface inversion overnight. The highest hourly readings will be between 10 PM and 6 AM.
Disclaimer:  These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). If you experience health impacts from smoke, contact your health professional. *The Air Quality Index (AQI) values used to create the table are 24-hr averages (midnight-midnight local time) of data from automated instruments. The data have not been subjected to a quality assurance review.
AQI Category
(PM2.5 ยตg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None
Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
Air Monitor Data    http://www.wildlandfiresmoke.net/monitoring                                  
California Smoke Blog            http://www.californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com                   
Air Districts    http://www.arb.ca.gov/capcoa/roster.htm   AirNow (AQI forecasts and nowcasts)   https://www.airnow.gov

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