Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 #Soberanes Fire, Smoke Impact Summary#24

Smoke Impact Summary #25                                                  Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                                    Alaska IMT Type 1
Issued for September 13th, 2016                                               Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                           Kathleen Stewart ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       September 13th the total fire acreage was reported at 107,050 acres.

2.       There was an additional 1,323 acres of new fire growth from the previous day.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Wednesday September 14th is estimated at 600 acres. This includes: 

a.             600 acres for active burning fire on the south and southeast fire perimeter. On Tuesday, there was very little active intensive burning and generation of smoke emissions. This was due to: cold temperatures, excellent RH recovery, trace rain at some RAWS, the Marine Layer at 4,000 ft. and persistent cloud cover. It is anticipated that it will take Wednesday’s morning hours to get the fuels ready again for active burning.

The above picture represents MODIS Satellite imagery at 8:00 PM 9/13/16. It shows that there are no new areas of smoke production during the last 24 hours for the Coastal Ridge Rd Burnout, Lost Valley and N Fork drainages.

4.      Extended 7 Day Outlook, September 9 – 15, the “future smoke emission acreage” was projected on September 9th at 9,000 acres. This estimate will be revised as needed.

5.      Long Term Outlook (beyond 2 weeks), “big box concept” has been revised. The projected acreage for additional smoke emissions is 74,564 acres.

6.      There was very little burning activity today at the Soberanes fire due to fire weather impacts to fuels. Air quality in the surrounding communities today generally bounced around with a mix of mostly good and moderate hourly values. Some visual spot checks of air quality were performed in the late afternoon with late haze apparent in some Salinas Valley towns. This haze could also have been mixed with residual smoke from the Soberanes, smoke impacts from other fires in CA, and/or a more localized source.
Persistent clouds remained over the Soberanes Fire for most of the day.

Hazy conditions in the hills to the west of King City
7.    IR Flight from 9/12/16.

The IR Flight showed very little heat from isolated or intense heat signatures. The yellow shaded areas represent scattered heat.  All these areas contributed to smoke via residual smoldering combustion. The overall impact today would be classed as very minimal.

8.  Because there were no new emissions generated, no smoke trajectories were run today.

9. The potential horizontal extent of smoke is minimal as there were no new emissions from the Soberanes today. The only potential source of smoke from the Soberanes today would be residual lingering smoke. Both AirNow and the NOAA Hazard Mapping System runs are consistent, showing no source of smoke from the Soberanes area. This is consistent with direct observations in the area.

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