Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 - #Sobranes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #13

Smoke Impact Summary #13                             Soberanes Wildfire

Air Basin: North Center Coast                                               CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 10th, 2016                                                  Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 7:00 PM                                                                                          Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 68,698 acres and 50% containment.

2.       Burning expanded estimated growth by 1,315 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Thursday, August 11th  is estimated at

 Acres. This includes:

a.       1,000 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

b.      1,000 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 12,000 acres.

 This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.      The weather today was primarily influenced by the marine layer.

The weather tomorrow will be marine layer influenced but may have slow movement north
at higher elevations when marine layer clears.  Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevation burning will continue to be smoldering combustion.  It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in Big Sur, Salinas Valley and the Carmel Valley for another day.
Potential exists for northern communities such as Salinas, Carmel and Monterey to have AQ impacts in the afternoon.
Looking W from the Carmel Valley Helibase. Lift is marginal as it was not able to rise above the inversion and its drift to the N and E.

6.      IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/10 at 7:15 PM

The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s S edge. Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations. These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Southern flow aloft will be mild but may push smoke into communities in the north, particularly Salinas and Monterey. IR data is shown from 8/9 report as data for this morning was not available. Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations(if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7.       Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions .
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green),100 meters (blue),
          and 250 meters (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 10, 2016

                        24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),
          and 250 meter (red) from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 10, 2016.

8.    The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below. 
It is anticipated that this smoke will drift north and east again tomorrow.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/10/16 PM.
Smoke from Soberanes continued to move north & east. Poor ventilation is causing the smoke to accumulate throughout central California.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9.    Smoke transport winds were from the south.  The wind speeds were such that the plume did not travel the distance seen yesterday. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel, and Salinas Valley were impacted.   San Joaquin was also impacted.
Important Note:
A more compressed marine layer will erode back to the coast by mid-morning again.  Clouds will linger along the coast, similar to Wednesday. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the region leading to warmer and drier conditions today.  Lower level winds still vary greatly over the fire with southerly flow over the coast and northerly flow over the east portion of the fire.  Smoke will linger over the region today due to weak upper level winds. The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend. For the evening, becoming mostly cloudy below 1500 feet.  Smoke settling over lower elevations.
Friday: Building high pressure will lead to a very noticeable warming and drying trend across the
fire.However, the marine layer will still impact the fire night and morning, but be more compressed.

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