Smoke Impact Summary #7 Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast CAL
Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 4, 2016 Prepared
by: Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 9:35 PM Steve
Fraidenburg ARA (T)
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 51,007 acres.
2.
Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 5,804
acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact tomorrow is estimated at 3,000 acres this includes:
a.
1,000 acres for the Burnout operations on
the east side
b.
1,000 acres free burning on the southern
fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)
c.
1,000 acres free burning where the fire
crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
4. Extended
Outlook: smoke emissions
are still estimated at 13,000 acres due
to this crossing.
Photo Above: IR fire perimeter & MODIS heat signatures Thursday 8/4 at 6:15 PM PDT.
It identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner where a major burnout
operation was almost completed. This burnout will be dressed up tomorrow. Another
section of perimeter is planned for burnout operation tomorrow. The S
side of the fire growth continues to occur and a burnout is planned. These
are the major emission sources. They are expected to impact Carmel, Salinas
and San Joaquin Valleys & their respective communities.
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Photo Above: IR
Flight from 8/3/16
IR heat intensity is very similar to the previous night.
It still identifies areas of intense heat (red shading & white arrows),
scattered heat (yellow shading) and isolated heat spots (red dots). These
heat intensities are numerous sources of emissions and in combination with
the burnout operation continues to affect AQ in local communities.
5. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions. |
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24 Hour
trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250
meters (red) from point near Little Sur River ran from 1400 on August 4, 2016.
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24 Hour
trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250
meters (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 0600 on August 4,
2016.
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24 Hour
trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250
meters (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 1400 on August 4,
2016.
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6. The Soberanes
Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below. It is anticipated
that
this smoke will remain SE orientation.
Photo: NOAA
Hazard Mapping System - 8/4/16 PM.
The area of dense smoke is significantly smaller than
what was captured yesterday.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red =
dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not
defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable
information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and
its zone of influence.
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Red
Zone - dense smoke
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7. Smoke transport tomorrow will begin with Westerly winds becoming NW. Thereby fanning a wide zone of influence. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery with the lines capturing the breathe of the smoke plume. The Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys were impacted again.
Important Note:
Friday:
Marine layer is
expected to be at 2,500 – 3,000 feet over the fire area. This effectively
dampens forest fuels and lowers fuel temperatures which can impede burnout operations and
shorten the “Burn Window”. Smoke production is expected to decline and air
quality to improve.
Saturday:
Similar weather
is expected. A two day impact may prove very beneficial to AQ.
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