Thursday, August 4, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #7

Smoke Impact Summary #7                                  Soberanes Wildfire

Air Basin: North Center Coast                                             CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS

Issued for August 4, 2016                                                      Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA

Time 9:35 PM                                                                                        Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 51,007 acres.

2.       Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 5,804 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact tomorrow is estimated at 3,000 acres this includes:  

a.       1,000 acres for the Burnout operations on the east side

b.      1,000 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)

c.       1,000 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.      Extended Outlook: smoke emissions are still estimated at 13,000 acres due to this crossing.

Photo Above: IR fire perimeter & MODIS heat signatures Thursday 8/4 at 6:15 PM PDT. It identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner where a major burnout operation was almost completed. This burnout will be dressed up tomorrow. Another section of perimeter is planned for burnout operation tomorrow.   The S side of the fire growth continues to occur and a burnout is planned. These are the major emission sources. They are expected to impact Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys & their respective communities.

Photo Above: IR Flight from 8/3/16 IR heat intensity is very similar to the previous night. It still identifies areas of intense heat (red shading & white arrows), scattered heat (yellow shading) and isolated heat spots (red dots). These heat intensities are numerous sources of emissions and in combination with the burnout operation continues to affect AQ in local communities. 5.  Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Little Sur River ran from 0600 on August 4, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Little Sur River ran from 1400 on August 4, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 0600 on August 4, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 1400 on August 4, 2016.

 

6.  The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated 

 that this smoke will remain SE orientation.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/4/16 PM. The area of dense smoke is significantly smaller than what was captured yesterday. 1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

Red Zone - dense smoke

7.      Smoke transport tomorrow will begin with Westerly winds becoming NW.  Thereby fanning a wide zone of influence. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery with the lines capturing the breathe of the smoke plume. The Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys were impacted again. 
   

Important Note: Friday: Marine layer is expected to be at 2,500 – 3,000 feet over the fire area. This effectively dampens forest fuels and lowers fuel temperatures which can impede burnout operations and shorten the “Burn Window”.  Smoke production is expected to decline and air quality to improve. Saturday: Similar weather is expected. A two day impact may prove very beneficial to AQ.