Smoke Impact Summary #14 Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast CAL FIRE IMT
4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 11th, 2016 Prepared
by: Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time 7:00 PM
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 69,837 acres and 55% containment.
2.
Burning expanded estimated growth by 1,139 acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Thursday, August 11th is estimated at 1,500
Acres. This includes:
a.
500 acres free burning on the southern fire
perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)
b.
500 acres free burning where the fire
crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
c.
500 acres from burnout operations
4. Extended
Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 11,000 acres.
This figure was
projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and
suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be
considerably different. It will be
revised as necessary.
5. The
weather today was influenced by the marine layer and an arriving high pressure
system.
The weather tomorrow will be
marine layer influenced but may have slow movement north at higher elevations when marine layer clears. Higher temperatures
and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevation burning may continue to be smoldering
combustion. It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the
surface in most area communities for at least another
day.
Looking
E up the Carmel Valley from the
Laureles Grade Road at approximately 15:00. Lift and ventilation is marginal.
6. Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/11 at 6:00 PM
The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s S edge. Mop-up continues. The S side
(center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in
two locations. These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Southern flow aloft
will be mild but may push smoke into communities in
the north, particularly Salinas and Monterey. Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.
7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red)
from point near Elephant Mtn. ran from 0600 on
August 11, 2016
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Elephant
Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 11, 2016.
8.
Photo: NOAA Hazard
Mapping System - 8/11/16 PM.
No image for
Soberanes Fire today.
1) Green = light,
2) Yellow = medium &
3)
Red = dense (only shown in the left picture).
These colored layers are not
defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable
information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its
zone of influence.
9.
Smoke transport winds were from the south on the west
side of the fire and from the northwest on the east side of
the fire. This was captured in the NOAA Visible
satellite imagery. Nearly all communities in the vicinity of
the fire were impacted with smoke today.San Joaquin was also impacted.
Important Note:
Friday:
The warming and drying
observed on Thursday will continue as high pressure builds. The most notable
change will occur away from the immediate coast/Hwy 1 and over higher
elevations. Relatively light southerly
flow will prevail during the morning becoming more northerly by the afternoon,
especially near Big Sur. The marine
layer will move inland again in the evening, but recoveries over higher
elevations will be poor. Lack of strong transport winds will make for lingering
smoke through the day.
Saturday:
The
warming and drying trend will
continue into the weekend. Areas
removed from the marine
layer
will likely see the hottest conditions
since last week. Overnight
humidity recoveries will be
poor over the upper slopes
and ridges.
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