Sunday, August 14, 2016

Sunday, August 14, 2016 #SoberanesFire Smoke Impact Summary #17

Smoke Impact Summary #17                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                        CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 14th, 2016                                             Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA

Time 7:00 PM                                                                                         

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 72,566 acres and 60% containment.

2.       Burning expanded estimated growth by 706 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Monday, August 15th  is estimated at 750

 Acres. This includes:

a.       200 acres free burning on the southern eastern fire perimeter.

b.      200 acres free burning in the south west interior

c.       500 acres from burnout operations

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 9,000 acres.

This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9thDepending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.      The weather today was influenced by the marine layer and a weakening high pressure .

The weather tomorrow will be marine layer influenced in the morning and as it clears will be influenced by a northerly wind.  High temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevations (except near the coast) will experience weather conditions similar to today.
Looking SW towards Big Sur from Old Coast Road at approximately 2 pm. Smoke lingered through the day.

6.      Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/14 at 6:00 PM

The Photo identifies active burning primarily on the fire’s S edge with some active interior burning as well. Mop-up continues. The S side of the fire growth continues to occur. This burning is a significant emission source and continue to impact Big Sur and Salinas Valley & their respective communities. Northern flow aloft will return and will push smoke into communities in the south, particularly Big Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county. A northwest wind in expected later in the day will also impact Salinas Valley.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous and for the most part are results of burning operations. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from major sources of emissions

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 14, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 14, 2016.

8. The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its drift are displayed below. 

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/14/16 6 PM.
Heavy smoke accumulation near Big Sur
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9.  Smoke transport winds were from the north, however this wind was very light and allowed for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions in some areas in the morning. Most communities near the fire enjoyed some relief from smoke today with the exception of Big Sur. A afternoon westerly on the coast also moved smoke inland. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county were both impacted

Important Note:
Monday: A deeper marine layer with low clouds, fog and drizzle will be possible early in the day. Clearing in the Big Sur area will occur but not until late in the afternoon and may remain along the immediate coast all day as a weak disturbance passes to the north of the incident. Expect moderate to excellent humidity recoveries over the mid and lower slopes.  Higher elevations and ridges will continue to see poor humidity recoveries.

Tuesday: A weak upper level disturbance will move across the area on Tuesday with a weak upper level trough developing over the  state mid-week. This trough will bring a slight cooling and moistening trend to the fire.

Night and morning low clouds will return, but higher elevations will remain mild and dry.

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