Saturday, August 13, 2016

Saturday, August 13, 2016 #SoberanesFire Smoke Impact Summary #16

Smoke Impact Summary #16                                   Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                              CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 13th, 2016                                               Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA

Time 7:00 PM                                                                                         

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 71,860 acres and 60% containment.

2.       Burning expanded estimated growth by 1,250 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Sunday, August 14th  is estimated at 1,500
 Acres. This includes:

a.       500 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

b.      500 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

c.       500 acres from burnout operations

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 9,000 acres.

This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9thDepending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different. It will be revised as necessary.

5.      The weather today was influenced by the marine layer and high pressure system.

The weather tomorrow will be marine layer influenced in the morning and as it clears will be influenced by a north wind.  High temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevations (except near the coast) will also experience high temperatures and low relative humidity after the marine layer moves recedes.

Looking SE towards Big Sur from US Hwy 1 at approximately 2 pm.   Smoke lingered through the day.

6.      Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/13 at 6:00 PM

The Photo identifies active burning primarily on the fire’s S edge some active interior burning as well. Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations. These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Northern flow aloft will increase and will push smoke into communities in the south, particularly Big Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county.   Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7.       Soberanes Fire Trajectories from major sources of emissions .

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red)
 from point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 13, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green),  100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red)
 from point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 13, 2016.

8.The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its drift are displayed below. 

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/13/16 6 PM.
Heavy smoke accumulation near Big Sur
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9. Smoke transport winds were from the south, however this wind was very light and allowed for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions throughout the region. Most communities near the fire enjoyed some relief from smoke today, with the exception of Big Sur. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county were both impacted.

Important Note:
Sunday: A shallow marine layer with low clouds/fog will be possible early Sunday as high pressure lingers over the region.  Temperatures will moderate or cool slightly as a trough of low pressure begins to develop over the region Sunday afternoon.  Do expect some clearing everywhere for a few hours, but the marine layer may impact the Big Sur area late Sunday afternoon as the trough of low pressure develops.  A more noticeable marine layer will return Sunday night with moderate to excellent humidity recoveries over mid and lower slopes.  Higher elevations and ridges will continue to see poor humidity recoveries.

Monday: An upper level trough will develop over the region bringing a cooling and
moistening trend to the Soberanes Fire. Night and morning low clouds will return,
but higher elevations will remain mild and dry.

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