Friday, August 12, 2016

Friday, August 12, 2016 #SobranesFire Smoke Impact Summary #15

Smoke Impact Summary #15                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                          CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 12th, 2016                                                Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA

Time 7:00 PM                                                                                         

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 70,610 acres and 55% containment.

2.       Burning expanded estimated growth by 773 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Saturday, August 13th  is estimated at 1,500
 Acres. This includes:

a.       500 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)

b.      500 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

c.       500 acres from burnout operations

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 10,000 acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 9th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be revised as necessary.

5.      The weather today was influenced by the marine layer and high pressure system.

The weather tomorrow will be marine layer influenced and as it clears will be influenced by a north wind.  Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevation burning may continue to be smoldering combustion. It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in most area communities for at least another day.
Looking E up the Carmel Valley from the Laureles Grade Road at approximately 15:00. Lift and ventilation is marginal.

6.      Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/12 at 6:00 PM
       The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s S edge. Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations. These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Northern flow aloft will increase and will push smoke into communities in the south, particularly Big Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county.   Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red)
 from point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 12, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red)
 from point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 12, 2016.

7.       The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below. 
            It is anticipated transport winds tomorrow will move smoke south.
Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/12/16 PM.
Image for Soberanes Fire today.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9.  Smoke transport winds were from the south on the west side of the fire and from the northwest on the east side of the fire, however this wind was very light and allowed for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions throughout the region.  Nearly all communities in the vicinity of the fire were impacted with smoke today. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county were both impacted.

Important Note:
A compressed marine layer will erode more quickly to the coast compared to previous days. 
As usual, clouds will linger longer along the Big Sur area. 
Otherwise, Saturday will be the hottest and driest day in about a week. 
Winds will be more northerly through the day with the strongest winds around Big Sur. 
Low clouds will develop again overnight, but mostly likely near northern Carmel and Big Sur. Humidities above the marine layer will be very dry with little to no recovery.
Transport winds will push smoke to the southeast.

Sunday: The warming and dryingtrend will be short lived as high
             pressure weakens and a trough of low pressure returns.
             The net result for the Soberanes Fire will be cooler
             and wetter conditions beginning Sunday into next week.

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