Smoke Impact Summary #22 Soberanes
Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast Alaska IMT Type 1
Issued for September 10th, 2016 Prepared by: Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM Kathleen Stewart ARA (T)
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
September 10th the
total fire acreage
was reported at 103,847 acres.
2.
There was an additional 605 acres
of new fire growth from the previous day.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow morning, Sunday September 11th is estimated
at 2,650 acres. This includes:
a.
650 acres for the burnout operation along
the Coastal Ridge Rd between Anderson Peak and Marble Peak. This was successfully completed to secure
this portion of the fire. The burnout operation is now expected to extend from
Marble Peak to Rodeo Flats. Over time when this is accomplished as much as 9,000 acres can be consumed.
b.
2,000 acres for active burning fire on the south and southeast fire perimeter. The North
Fork and Lost Valley drainages responded to forecasted increased instability by
making respective fire runs. The Haines Index was 5. During these runs much of the smoke generated
was transported west and eventually south.
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VIIRS Satellite imagery 8:30 PM 9/10/16 shows the areas
of major smoke production, red dot squares. These heat signatures were
recorded in the last 12 hours. The fire perimeter is from the previous
night’s IR Flight. At Marble Peak a successful burnout was conducted and
Lost Valley & N. Fork drainages experienced fire runs.
|
4. Extended Outlook for the next 7 days,
September 9 – 15, “future smoke emission acreage” was projected on September 9th
at 9,000 acres. This estimate will be revised as needed.
Long Term Outlook
for beyond 2 weeks, the “big box concept” was projected at 51,200 acres.
5.
The
importance of instability proved itself today as fires became more active and
intense.
Smoke columns went
to the heights of 12,000 to 15,000 feet. With a successful burnout and
drainages expanding acres burned, air quality was certainly affected. In Salinas Valley Gonzales, Soledad and
Greenfield fluctuated throughout the day. Big Sur, Tassajara and Cachagua experienced
higher concentrations of PM2.5 due to their proximity to the fire. In Lockwood,
south of the fire, PM2.5 levels varied throughout the day. On Sunday September 11th instability is forecasted to return.
Wind speed and gustiness are expected to be higher than today. This improves
smoke dispersion but it also provides the opportunity for increased smoke
production. Also wind direction and topography are in alignment in the Lost Valley
drainage facilitating another major fire run.
6. IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 9/10/16 at 9:00
PM
IR Flight heat intensities from
the previous night are identified. Areas
of intense heat (red shaded areas) cannot be seen. They are behind the Modis
red squares & dots. IR Flight for scattered heat is represented by yellow shaded
areas. The Southern part of the fire’s perimeter continues to be the most
active. Smoke impact was kept to the interior of the Coastal Range for most of
the morning. However in the afternoon instability facilitated increased burning
intensity.
7.
Soberanes Fire
Trajectories (12 hours at 10m, 500m, and 1000m) on September 11th starting at
3:00 PM. Major sources of smoke were used as a starting point for the
trajectories. The trajectory points are Marble Peak, Lost Valley, and North
Fork of Big Sur River.
8.The potential horizontal
extent of smoke from the Soberanes Fire and others is displayed below from the
NOAA Hazard Mapping System (left) and AirNow (right) for September 10th, 2016
(PM). NOAA Hazard Mapping System shaded areas represent three types of smoke:
Light (green), Medium (yellow) and Red (dense). These colors are not defined by
their height above ground. However, they do provide valuable information
concerning the horizontal expanse of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of
influence. These interpretations seem to underestimate the plume expanse when reviewing
observations at PM 2.5 stations.
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