Wednesday, August 3, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #6

Smoke Impact Forecast #6                                               Soberanes Wildfire

Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                                      CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS

Issued for August 3^rd, 2016                                                                           Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio/ Steve Fraidenburg

Time: 8:00 AM                                                                                                                                            ARA / ARA (T)

Smoke Synopsis:

Yesterday: AQ was degraded as smoke emissions increased due to Burnout operations. The acres contributing to the fire emissions were estimated at 3,000 acres. Northern communities experienced better AQ as wind direction change alleviated smoky conditions. At the day’s end Carmel Valley Village Station was the most severely impacted. The geographic position of the Valley in relation to the fire and natural diurnal surface wind flow facilitate this impact. The Salinas Valley communities experienced degraded AQ through the day. Today: AQ for Carmel and northern communities is expected to remain improved. Burnout operations will continue and smoke production will be same as yesterday. This has been factored into the AQ Table. Carmel River School area AQ is expected to be “Moderate” with Carmel Valley Village projected to experience the poorest AQ, “Unhealthy”. The heaviest smoke will again reside in the Coastal Range. It will sweep E through the day and then turn to the SE. Upper level drift smoke will continue impacting San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. Lower layered smoke will be in the Carmel Valley becoming denser as one proceeds up valley.  Salinas Valley is expected to be impacted all day. Tomorrow: AQ for Northern communities should remain relatively clear while Salinas Valley (Gonzales to King) will experience lighter levels of smoke through the day.  In the Carmel Valley, from Carmel Valley Village and up valley expect dense smoke.

Air Quality Outlook:

Location		Yesterday August 2nd   Observed		Today August 3rd    Forecasted	Tomorrow August 4th     Forecasted		Comments:  The time of day for “Poorer AQ” is projected below. During this periods of trends for AQ can be variable.
Santa Cruz		Good		Good	Good
Gilory		Good		Good	Good
Hollister		Good		Good	Good
Salinas		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke clearing in AM / Clear in afternoon
Toro Park		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke clearing in AM / Clear in afternoon
Monterey ARB		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke clearing in AM / Clear in afternoon
Carmel River Sch		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke clearing in AM/ Clear in afternoon
Carmel Valley		Unhealthy		Unhealthy	Unhealthy SG		Smoke all day
Gonzales		Moderate		Moderate	Good		Smoke through the day with variable AQ
Soledad		Moderate		Moderate	Good		Smoke through the day with variable AQ
Greenfield		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Moderate		Smoke through the day with variable AQ
King City		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke through the day with variable AQ
Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.
	AQI Category (PM2.5 µg/m3)		Potential Health Impacts			Actions to Protect Yourself
	Good (0-12)		Little or no health risk			None
	Moderate (13-35)		Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.			Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)		Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.			People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
	Unhealthy (56-150)		Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.			The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
	Very Unhealthy (151-250)		Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects			Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
	Hazardous (>250)		The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.			The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

Learn more at:

          a) California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/

          b) Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/

          c) California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/