Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Wednesday, August 3, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #6

Smoke Impact Summary #6                        Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                   CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 3rd, 2016                                         Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio (ARA)
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                       Steve Fraidenburg   ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  
1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 45,800 acres.
2.       Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 2,300 acres.
3.       Projected smoke emission impact tomorrow is estimated at 7,000 acres this includes:  
a.       4,000 acres for the Burnout operation on the east side of the fire
b.      2,000 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)
c.       1,000 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
4.     Extended outlook for smoke emissions is 13,000 acres as a result of the fire crossing Little Sur.
Photo above: IR fire perimeter & MODIS heat signatures Wednesday 8/3 at 6:15 PM PDT

The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner where a major burnout operation is being conducted.  The side of the fire growth continues to occur. All three sections of fire perimeter are the major emission sources. These continue to impact Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. The current burnout operation is projected to be completed by the end of Thursday’s shift. The two free burn areas will require line preparation work before burnout operations can be considered.

Photo above: IR Flight from last night 8/2   

IR heat intensity is very similar to the previous night. It still identifies areas of intense heat (red shading & white arrows), scattered heat (yellow shading) and isolated heat spots (red dots). These heat intensities are numerous sources of emissions and in combination with the burnout operation continue to affect AQ in local communities.

5. Soberanes Fire Trajectories for each major source emission source

48 Hour trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 Meters (blue) and 250 Meters (red) from start point near the South Fork of the Little Sur River.

48 Hour trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from start point near Uncle Sam Mtn.

48 Hour trajectory model from elevations: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from start point near Pociano Ridge.

6.  The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated   that this smoke will turn more to the SE as the night time progresses.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/3/16 PM.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

7.        Smoke transport tomorrow will begin with Westerly winds at the lower levels with variable upperlevels SW – W – NW through the course of day.  Thereby fanning a wide zone of influence. The Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys were impacted by the burnout operation as captured by the visible satellite image. The penetration into the San Joaquin Valley was via Carrizo Plain / Bakersfield at its southern end.

Important Note:
With the incoming weather starting tomorrow night and on Friday: the deepening of the Marine layer, increasing RH, generally light upper winds & cooling surface and upper air temperatures, this can serve to decrease fire behavior. This in turn can possibly reduce smoke over the next 2 days. This potential impact will be assessed tomorrow.

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