Sunday, August 7, 2016

Sunday, August 7,2016 #Soberanes Smoke Impact Summary #10

Smoke Impact Summary #10                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                       CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 7th, 2016                                             Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio, ARA
Time 7:00 PM                                                                                      Steve Fraidenburg, ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 57,845 acres.

2.       Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 2,163 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Monday August 8th  is estimated at 1,500
acres. This includes: 
a.       500 acres for the Burnout operations on the southwest side.
b.      500 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn.)
c.       500 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” still remains estimated at 53,320 acres. This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 5th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be adjusted as needed. There is optimism that it will be lowered in next 1 to 2 days.

5.  The weather today supported opportunistic burnout operation through late afternoon on the fire’s SW side. The weather tomorrow will be basically the same for above and below the marine layer. Lower elevation burning will support more smoldering combustion than elevations above the marine layer. It is expected that is will continue to degrade AQ at the surface in the Salinas Valley and the Carmel Valley for another day. 

Photo above: Laureles Grade Rd. vantage point looking approximately S. Plume lift is captured and its drift to the SE.  The Carmel River Valley will be directly experience degraded AQ from late evening until late morning. AQ will improve around 11:00 AM. The NAM modeled PBL was approximately 1000 m which was 500 m less than yesterday’s PBL. Transport winds were at 10 mph.  This lowered layer with poor horizontal transport will support smoke accumulation in the coastal range.

6.      IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/7 at 7:15 PM

Photo above identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner (Las Padres Dam) This was completed today. Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys & their respective communities should start to see AQ improvement. On the SW corner (Big Sur) there was 100 acre run last night. The fire’s expanse was used as an advantage and a burnout was conducted. This will continue to impact Big Sur and to the SE along the coast into San Luis Obispo County. The side / center area of the fire continues to creep. These are the major emission sources.

Photo above Identifies Infra-Red Flight 8/6.
IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. The SW corner has the most intense heat. This is where the fire made its run and was followed up with a burnout operation. This will degrade AQ along the coast and into San Luis Obispo County.

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions are displayed for two time starts.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 0600 on August 7, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Blue Rock Ridge ran from 1400 on August 7, 2016.


24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Big Sur ran from 0600 on August 7, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Big Sur ran from 1400 on August 7, 2016

8.    The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated  
  that this smoke will remain similar with the SE orientation for tomorrow. With the fire growth       on the east side slowing and successful suppression accomplishments, less smoke generation will     start giving relief to the Carmel and Salinas Valleys.

Photo above: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/7/16 PM.
Smoke from Soberanes continued to move south & east. The eastern travel was not as far as past days.  1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.

9.     Smoke transport winds were light from the NW.  The windspeeds were such that the plume did not travel the distances seen in past days. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel Valley, and Salinas Valley were impacted.   San Joaqin had less impact again today.

Important Note:
The marine layer will deepen a tad Monday night with slightly better humidity recoveries over lower elevations. However, humidity values above the marine layer, especially higher peaks, gradually lower/dry overnight and will be in the teens during the pre-dawn hours in the thermal belts from 2500-4500 feet. Smoke production is expected to decrease and air quality most likely will improve.

Weather conditions are forecast to be similar to Monday. Smoke production and air quality will continue to be affected.

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