Sunday, August 14, 2016

Sunday, August 14, 2016 #SoberanesFire Smoke Impact Forecast 17


Smoke Impact Forecast #17                                                                 Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                                                               CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 14, 2016                                                                     Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA

Time: 7:00 AM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Smoke Synopsis:

Yesterday: The Air Quality (AQ) improved for most communities in the fire area. Big Sur was the most severely impacted area registering unhealthy. All other communities monitored (with the exception of Lockwood which registered moderate) had good AQ.  
Today: With warm and dry weather conditions forecasted, fire growth and interior burning continue and smoke production is expected to increase. Winds from the north and northwest will give most communities in the fire area some relief from smoke.  This has been factored into the AQ Table. Big Sur is expected to be Unhealthy. Gonzales, Soledad, and Lockwood will continue to have moderate AQ due to the northwest winds.  Smoke is expected to continue impacting the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. The northern San Luis Obispo County, especially coastal areas, will continue to have an impact from smoke. Changes to AQ today are results of continued burning, forecasted weather, and dispersion models.
Tomorrow:   Smoke transport again is expected to be influenced by a northerly wind which will increase impacts to southern Monterey County and northern San Luis Obispo County. Weather is forecasted to cool and relative humidity increase which may slow fire activity.

Air Quality Outlook:

Location
Yesterday
August 13th
Observed
Today
August 14th   
Forecasted
Tomorrow
August 15th   
Forecasted
Comments: Today- Times of impaired air quality are projected below. During these periods Air Quality can be variable.

Santa Cruz
Good
 Good
Good


Gilroy
Good
 Good
Good


Hollister
Good
 Good
Good


Salinas
Good
        Good
Good


Toro Park
Good
Good
        Good


Monterey ARB
Good
Good
Good


Carmel River Sch
Good
Good
Good


Carmel Valley
Good
Good
Good


Gonzales
Good
Moderate
Good
Smoke late morning and afternoon

Soledad
Good
Moderate
Moderate
Smoke late morning and afternoon

Greenfield
       Good
Good
Moderate


King City
Good
Good
 Moderate


SJ Bautista
Good
Good
Good


Fort Ord
        Good
Good
        Good


Big Sur
Unhealthy
 Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Smoke through the day and night

Pacific Grove
Good
       Good
       Good


Lockwood
Moderate
     Moderate
    Moderate
Smoke through the day and night

Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.


*See Air Quality Index Table on next page













AQI Category
(PM2.5 Āµg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself

Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None

Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.

Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.

Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.

Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

Learn more at:

a)        California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/

b)        Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/

       c)      California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/

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