Air Basin: North Central Coast CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 13th, 2016 Prepared by: Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time 7:00 PM
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 71,860 acres and 60% containment.
2.
Burning expanded estimated growth by 1,250 acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Sunday, August 14th is estimated at 1,500
Acres. This includes:
a.
500 acres free burning on the southern fire
perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)
b.
500 acres free burning where the fire
crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
c.
500 acres from burnout operations
4. Extended
Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 9,000
acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical
options presented on August 9th. Depending on
weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be
considerably different. It will be revised as necessary.
5. The
weather today was influenced by the marine layer and high pressure system.
The weather tomorrow
will be marine layer influenced in the morning and as it clears will be
influenced by a north wind. High temperatures
and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevations (except near
the coast) will also experience high temperatures and low relative humidity
after the marine layer moves recedes.
Looking SE towards
Big Sur from US Hwy 1 at approximately 2 pm. Smoke lingered through the day.
6.
Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/13 at
6:00 PM
The Photo identifies active burning primarily on the fire’s S edge some active interior burning as
well. Mop-up continues. The S side
(center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations. These are
significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas
and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Northern flow aloft
will increase and will push smoke into communities in the south, particularly Big
Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county. Areas
of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated
heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources
of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if conducted),
continue to affect AQ in local communities.
7.
Soberanes Fire
Trajectories from major sources of emissions .
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue),
and 250 meters (red)
from point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on
August 13, 2016
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red)
from point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on
August 13, 2016.
8.The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its drift are
displayed below.
Photo: NOAA Hazard
Mapping System - 8/13/16 6 PM.
Heavy smoke
accumulation near Big Sur
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3)
Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not
defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable
information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its
zone of influence.
9. Smoke transport winds were from the south, however this wind was very light and allowed
for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions throughout the
region. Most communities near the fire enjoyed
some relief from smoke today, with the
exception of Big Sur. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county
were both impacted.
Important Note:
Sunday: A shallow marine layer with low clouds/fog will
be possible early Sunday as high pressure lingers over the region. Temperatures will moderate or cool slightly
as a trough of low pressure begins to develop over the region Sunday
afternoon. Do expect some clearing
everywhere for a few hours, but the marine layer may impact the Big Sur area
late Sunday afternoon as the trough of low pressure develops. A more noticeable marine layer will return
Sunday night with moderate to excellent humidity recoveries over mid and lower
slopes. Higher elevations and ridges
will continue to see poor humidity recoveries.
Monday: An upper level trough will develop over the region bringing a cooling and
moistening trend to the Soberanes Fire. Night
and morning low clouds will
return,
but higher elevations will remain mild and dry.
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