Monday, August 1, 2016

Monday, August 1, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #4

Smoke Impact Summary #4                                               Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 1st, 2016                                                                 Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio
Time 8:00 PM                                                                                                     Air Resource Advisor

Fire Status & Key Points:  
1.       Fire has burned approximately 40,714 acres as of 8/1/16.
2.       Yesterday the fire increased in size by approximately 2,707 acres.
3.      The expected increase in acres contributing to emissions is 4,000 acres.  

Photo above: Sunday 7/31 at 2:00 PM PDT. Infra-red fire perimeter & MODIS heat signatures identify active burning on the fire’s east side. This E/SE side of the fire is where fire growth continues to occur and is the main emission source impacting Carmel Valley and Salinas Valley communities.

Photo above: Monday 8/1 at 5:15 PM. This comparison photo displays the difference of heat signatures in +24 hours. MODIS signatures and IR Flight areas of intense (Red) heat and scattered (Yellow) heat have declined. This fire intensity has changed due to a favorable weather pattern that has lowered the release energy of the fuels. This has affected fire behavior where a timely and favorable burnout operation was started today.


Photo above: IR Flight from last night July 31st 4. The IR identifies areas of intense heat (red shading & white arrows), scattered heat (yellow shading) and isolated heat spots (red dots). Even with the decline in heat signatures there are still numerous sources of emissions. The eastern and southern side of the fire will continue to affect AQ in local communities through Thursday.

5.    The extent of smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below. Both graphic shows a marked change from this morning’s information collected for the Soberanes Fire at 4:50 PM versus the evening's information collected at 6:15 PM. With a major burnout operation initiated today, its zone of influence will be assessed tomorrow.

Photos above: NOAA Hazard Mapping System-August 1st. The top photo is the morning assessment while the bottom photo is the evening assessment. The three colors identify three layers of smoke:
1. Green = light, 2.Yellow = medium & 3. Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume or zone of influence.

6.     The Soberanes Fire smoke is expected to persistent through the week. Because of favorable weather being provided by the Marine Layer and light winds and with the fire’ smoke acting as “smoke curtain” or “shading veil” the burnout operation is expected to last through Thursday.

7.     Starting tomorrow Tuesday August 2, the persistent SW transport winds will become W and later in the evening becoming NW.  This change will facilitate the smoke reaching San Joaquin earlier in the day and more in quantity. It also can jam or impede evening smoke from retreating  in the Carmel and Salinas Valleys.

8.   AQ monitors are providing observations for the fire’s Smoke Impact Forecast and AQ Outlook Table. This can be used for planning personal activities. Each station’s AQI information is being provided on what was observed yesterday. This provides a reference point when forecasting AQ Today and Tomorrow values. Early today Carmel River School was “Unhealthy” at 3 AM while Carmel Valley was trending “Unhealthy” at 11 AM. Hollister trended  “Moderate” for most of the day. With the burnout operation underway, the wildfire’s impact will be assessed for the 24 hour sampling period and reported in tomorrow's Smoke Impact Forecast.

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