Monday, October 3, 2016

Monday, October 3, 2016: Mariposa Grove Prescribed Fire Smoke Effects Forecast #2

Yosemite National Park
Prepared: 10/03/16 Prepared by:  Jim McNitt, Air Resource Specialist

Overview: The 2016 Mariposa Grove prescribed fire project is comprised of 148 acres and is divided into six segments, four of which are in the northern part of the grove and two in the southern part. By maintaining fire in the Mariposa Grove, both fuels reduction and ecological goals can be achieved.  Periodic fire occurrence plays a key role in the health and regeneration of giant sequoia. The Mariposa Grove is closed to the public until Spring 2017 for the Mariposa Grove restoration project. Operations Summary: Ignitions started on Sunday, 10/2/16 and 31 acres were burned in the lower grove. The fire is being monitored today and mop up operations will continue through the week. Smoke Synopsis: Smoke transport and dispersion was excellent yesterday. It is good today and will be fair tonight. Smoke production today is light. Expect smoke transport and dispersion tomorrow to be good in the afternoon and poor at night. Smoke will be transported to the east today during the day and downslope to the southwest overnight settling in drainages by the early morning. Smoke will be transported to the east during the afternoon on Tuesday. Outlook: A dry, cool northwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue through Wednesday. Moderate high pressure is expected to build in by Thursday.
Location
Day 1
10/2/16
Observed*
Day 2
10/3/16 Forecasted
Day 3
10/4/16
Forecasted
Details for avoiding smoke during the worst hours of the day. Ignitions were conducted on Day 1.
Wawona
Good
Moderate
Moderate
Smoke from the Lakes Fire and Mariposa Grove will flow downslope overnight and settle in drainages by the early morning. People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion. Highest levels of PM2.5 will be between 4 AM and noon.
El Portal
Good
Good
Good

Yosemite Valley
Moderate
Good
Good

Disclaimer:  These predictions are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). If you experience health impacts from smoke, contact your health professional. *The Air Quality Index (AQI) values used to create the table are 24-hr averages (midnight-midnight local time) of data from automated instruments. The data have not been subjected to a quality assurance review.
AQI Category
(PM2.5 µg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None
Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
Air Monitor Data:    http://www.wildlandfiresmoke.net/monitoring                                  
Air Districts:    http://www.arb.ca.gov/capcoa/roster.htm   AirNow (AQI forecasts and nowcasts):   https://www.airnow.gov    
Yosemite Fire Information and Updates:  https://www.nps.gov/yose/blogs/fireinfo.htm

No comments:

Post a Comment