Thursday, September 15, 2016

Thursday, September 15, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #26

Smoke Impact Summary #26                                     Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                California IMT 4, Type I
Issued for September 14th, 2016                                               Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                           Kathleen Stewart ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       September 14th the total fire acreage was reported at 107,375 acres.

2.       There was an additional 325 acres of new fire growth from the previous day.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Thursday Wednesday September 15th is estimated at 600 acres. This includes: 

a.             600 acres for active burning fire for the burnout operation on Chew’s Ridge. On Wednesday, there was very little active intensive burning and generation of smoke emissions were lowered. However, a planned burnout operation to start working on approximately 75,000 acre planned for Thursday was moved up and started today.  The Monterey Bay Air Resources District was informed of this IMT operational task. A Blue-Sky run was initiated and modeling results passed onto the District and the IMT’s Public Information Officer. With the size of the burnout operation and the needed time to complete, the 1 km weather model was requested to remain over the area.

 The above picture represents MODIS Satellite imagery at 8:00 PM 9/14/16. For the second straight day there were no new areas of smoke production for the Coastal Ridge Rd Burnout, Lost Valley and N Fork drainages.

The weather anomaly that was experienced yesterday shutdown smoke production for 2 days. Fuels only became receptive for igniting after 2 PM on Wednesday.

4.      Extended 7 Day Outlook, September 9 – 15, the “future smoke emission acreage” was projected on September 9th at 9,000 acres. This estimate will be revised as needed.

5.      Long Term Outlook (beyond 2 weeks), “big box concept” has been revised. The projected acreage for additional smoke emissions is 74,564 acres.

6. There was very little burning activity today at the Soberanes fire. This was due to weather  
     impacts on fuels. This forced the burnout operation to start late. In the meantime air quality
     in the surrounding communities was good.

7.  With no new heat sources observed a trajectory and custom dispersion model run was exercised for
     Chews Ridge Burnout. This information was generated in order to project potential downwind

8. The NOAA Hazard Mapping System displays interpreted influences of several smoke plumes. The horizontal extent of Soberanes smoke was minimal. There were no new heat sources from the Soberanes today. The only potential source of smoke would have been residual lingering smoke which was not present during the morning FBAN flight and from the late starting burnout operation on Chews Ridge.

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