Monday, September 26, 2016

Monday, September 26, 2016 #SoberanesFire Smoke Impact Forecast #60

Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #60
Issued: Monday September 26, 2016 0800
Posted by: Jen Croft- ARA & Sean Luchs ARA (t)

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire and other fires.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants and other sources are generally not reflected.


Fire: Current fire acres are 126,913 an increase in 223 acres. Current containment is 78%. Stronger winds on Sunday led to increased fire activity in the fire’s interior and more smoke production. The additional acreage of the fire came from unburned interior areas between Miller Creek and Church Creek. Crews will continue to directly attack the fire today with no firing operations planned.


Air Quality Today: With winds generally from the east late Sunday and into Monday, smoke impacts are more likely to be seen in the coastal communities.  Tassajara, Arroyo Seco, Cachagua should also see higher concentrations, particularly in the late night and morning hours. Very visible nighttime pooling in the Carmel Valley and some nighttime pooling should also be seen in the Salinas Valley as smoke from Sunday settles, particularly in Gonzales and Soledad. Winds today should provide relief for the Salinas Valley late today.

Air Quality Tomorrow:  Winds near the most active part of the fire should become lighter and more northerly, resulting in more significant nighttime pooling of smoke in the Carmel Valley. Some visual impacts may be seen near the coast before lingering smoke kept in the area by terrain disperses.



Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes Fire (midnight to midnight)

Site
Yesterday Observed
24-Hr AQI
September 25, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
September 26, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
September 27, 2016
Best Time of Day
September 26
24–Hr AQI
Carmel River School
Moderate
Moderate
Good
Good all day
Carmel Valley
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Cachagua
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Mid-day/early afternoon
Big Sur
Good
Moderate
Good
Mid-day
Tassajara
Moderate
Moderate
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Arroyo Seco
No Monitor
Moderate
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
Mid-day
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Gonzales
Good
Moderate
Good
Afternoon
Soledad
Moderate
Moderate
Good
Afternoon
Greenfield
Good
Good
Good
Mid-day/early afternoon
King City
Good
Good
Good
Good all day
Lockwood
Good
Good
Good
Good all day

Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.


For more information, please call the Soberanes Fire Information Line at (831) 204-0446
Forecasted Air Quality Map                                                 



  
Use the Air Quality Index to plan your activities
The Air Quality Index (AQI) is a measure used for reporting daily air quality. It tells you how clean or polluted your air is for the day, and what associated health effects might be a concern.
Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/


Smoke column trends through the afternoon of September 25 as seen by satellite

Photograph of smoke column activity from the afternoon of September 25



 
NOAA Hysplit projected trajectories from releases at heights of 100 meters , 500 meters, and 1000 m.

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