Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Tuesday August 23, 2016 - #Soberanesfire Smoke Impact Forecast

Air Quality Report                                                                         Issue Date: 08/23/2016
Soberanes Fire                                        Prepared by:  Randy Striplin and Robert Elleman
Forecast-26

Forecast conditions represent impacts from smoke from the Soberanes Fire wildfire.  Contributions from ozone and other pollutants are not reflected.

Fire:  Generally light fire activity today associated with backing fire. The alignment of the wind and terrain make potential for a longer run in the Pine Valley northwest of Tassajara. Perimeter burnouts are unlikely. Current perimeter is 86,294 acres, with 1,082 new acres. Current containment is reported at 60%.
Air Quality Today: Transport winds continue to be light but have shifted to come from the west-northwest. This wind pattern, plus likely more smoke production today than in the past couple days, means more smoke in Tassajara, and to a lesser extent in Greenfield and King City. Most of the smoke from the fire will remain in place over the fire. Nighttime drainage flow will bring smoke to the coast around Big Sur and southward. The smoke along the coast will dissipate midday with the afternoon sea breeze.
Air Quality Tomorrow:  Light northwest flow is forecast to continue tomorrow, producing similar smoke concentrations as today.

Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) Impacts from the Soberanes fire
Site
Yesterday Observed
Midnight-Midnight
24-Hr AQI
August 22, 2016
Today’s Forecast
24-Hr  AQI
August 23, 2016
Tomorrow
Outlook
24-Hr AQI
August 24, 2016
Best Time of Day
August 23
AQI and 24 hr. Period
Santa Cruz
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Gilroy
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Hollister
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Salinas
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Toro Park
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Monterey AFB
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Carmel River School
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Carmel Valley
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Gonzales
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Soledad
 Good
 Good
 Good
Good conditions today
Greenfield
 Good
Moderate
 Moderate
Relief at night
King City
 Good
 Moderate
Moderate
Relief at night
SJ Bautista
 Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today
Tassajara Hot Springs
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Unhealthy
Relief at times
Big Sur
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Relief in the afternoon with the sea breeze
Pacific Grove
Good
Good
Good
Good conditions today

Disclaimer:  Conditions may change quickly, these projections are based on anticipated weather and fire activity.  Sensitive groups including individuals with Asthma, lung or heart disease, children, older adults, and pregnant women should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you feel as though you are having health effects from smoke see your doctor or health professional as needed. In some cases your eyes are your best tools, if it is smoky outside you are being impacted. Use caution when driving in or around smoky areas.
AQI Index
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good
                                                                                          None
Moderate
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - USG
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy           
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy

Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
Views of smoke from fire:  Jamesburg- http://cens.jamesreserve.edu/activejpg/cam2_hastings.jpg 
Monterey Air Resource Board - http://mbard.org/

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