Saturday, August 6, 2016

Friday, August 5, 2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #8a

Smoke Impact Summary #8                       Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                              CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 5th, 2016                                     Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 9:35 PM                                                                                   Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points:  

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 53,726 acres.

2.       Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 2,719 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for Friday August 6th is estimated at 2,500 acres this includes:  
a.       1,000 acres for the Burnout operations on the east and southwest sides.
b.         750 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)
c.          750 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 53,320 acres. This figure includes 13,000 acres previously stated when the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur.

5.      The weather today delayed burnout operations until late afternoon. The weather will have a similar impact facilitating degraded AQ in the Salinas Valley.  



Greenfield: during the daylight hours 8/5.  AQ fluctuated from Moderate to Unhealthy. The present view is from Walnut Street due West. The ridge line is barely visible and is approximately 8 miles. AQ PM 2.5 readings varied from 13 to 83 ยต ⁄ m³.

6.      IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/5 at 7:15 PM

The Photo below identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner where a major burnout operation is completed. Dressing up continues. Burnout operation was started late today and will be continued tomorrow. The S side of the fire growth continues to occur and a burnout is planned at a later date. These are the major emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities.



Burnout

Dress up & Burnout

Free Burn
Photo below: Infra-Red Flight from 8/4
IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat are red shading & white arrows. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and  burnout operations, continue to affect AQ in local communities.







7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions.



24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Launtz Ridge ran from 0600 on August 5, 2016







24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Launtz Ridge ran from 1400 on August 5, 2016.



 

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Uncle Sam Mountain ran from 0600 on August 5, 2016.







24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Uncle Sam Mountain ran from 1400 on August 5, 2016


8.    The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  It is anticipated that this smoke will remain ESE orientation.


Photo below: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/5/16 PM.
Smoke from Soberanes continued to move east and has mixed with smoke from other fires in the San Joaquin Valley. 1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence




9. Important Note: 

Saturday:
Marine layer is expected to be at 2,000 – 2,500 feet over the fire area. This effectively dampens forest fuels and lowers fuel temperatures   which can impede burnout operations and shorten the “Burn Window”. Smoke production is expected to decline and air quality to improve.

Sunday:
The marine layer will be present in the fire area in the morning but drier conditions than Saturday are expected.



      Smoke transport winds were Westerly eventually becoming NW.  The wind speeds were such that the plume fanned across a wide zone of influence. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys were impacted again.  


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