Air Basin: North Central Coast CAL FIRE IMT
4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 14th, 2016 Prepared
by: Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time 7:00 PM
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 72,566 acres and 60% containment.
2.
Burning expanded estimated growth by 706 acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Monday, August 15th is estimated at 750
Acres. This includes:
a.
200 acres free burning on the southern eastern
fire perimeter.
b.
200 acres free burning in the south west
interior
c.
500 acres from burnout operations
4. Extended
Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 9,000
acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical
options presented on August 9th. Depending on
weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably
different. It will be revised as necessary.
5. The
weather today was influenced by the marine layer and a weakening high pressure .
The weather tomorrow
will be marine layer influenced in the morning and as it clears will be
influenced by a northerly wind. High
temperatures and lower relative humidity at higher elevation may increase
combustion hence increasing smoke production. Lower elevations (except near the coast) will
experience weather conditions similar to today.
6.
Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/14 at
6:00 PM
The Photo identifies active burning primarily on the fire’s S edge with some active interior burning as well. Mop-up continues. The S side of the fire growth continues to
occur. This burning is a significant emission source and continue to impact Big
Sur and Salinas Valley & their respective communities. Northern flow aloft
will return and will push smoke into communities in the south, particularly Big
Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county. A northwest wind in expected later in
the day will also impact Salinas Valley. Areas of intense heat are red shading.
Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat
intensities are still numerous and for the most part are results of burning
operations. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning
and burnout operations (if conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.
7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from
point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on August 14, 2016
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from
point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on August 14, 2016.
8. The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its drift are
displayed below.
Photo: NOAA Hazard
Mapping System - 8/14/16 6 PM.
Heavy smoke
accumulation near Big Sur
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense
(only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their
elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information
concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of
influence.
9. Smoke transport winds were from the north, however this wind was very light and allowed
for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions in
some areas in the morning. Most
communities near the fire enjoyed some relief from smoke today with the
exception of Big Sur. A afternoon westerly on the coast also moved smoke
inland. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county
were both impacted
Important Note:
Monday: A deeper marine layer with low clouds, fog and
drizzle will be possible early in the day. Clearing in the Big Sur area will
occur but not until late in the afternoon and may remain along the immediate
coast all day as a weak disturbance
passes to the north of the incident. Expect moderate to excellent humidity
recoveries over the mid and lower slopes.
Higher elevations and ridges will continue to see poor humidity
recoveries.
Tuesday: A weak upper level disturbance will move
across the area on Tuesday with a weak upper level trough developing over
the state mid-week.
This trough will bring a slight cooling and moistening
trend to the fire.
Night and morning low clouds will return, but
higher elevations will remain mild and dry.
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