Monday, August 8, 2016

Monday, August 8,2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact Summary #11

Smoke Impact Summary #11                             Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                        CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 8th, 2016                                               Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 10:00 PM                                                                                      Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)

Fire Status & Key Points: 

1.       Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 60,459 acres.

2.       Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 5,614 acres.

3.       Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Tuesday August 9th is estimated at 2,000 acres. This includes: 
a.       1,000 acres for the Burnout operations on the southwest side.
b.      500 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn.)
c.       500 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur

4.      Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” still remains estimated at 53,320 acres. This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 5th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments, this acreage can be considerably different.  It will be adjusted as needed. There is optimism that it will be lowered in next 1 to 2 days. Progress was made again today in the suppression effort. Fire runs did occur at the fire’s edge in the SW and S middle sections as well as small burnouts in the SE- Las Padres Dam area.  Photo below looking to the SE capturing three vertical plumes

5.     The weather today supported a continued burnout operation on the fire’s SW side. Other plumes developed as fire runs from internal burning occurred.  It is expected that this activity can degrade AQ at the surface in the Salinas Valley and the Carmel Valley for another day. 

The view above is at Laureles Grade Rd. vantage point looking approximately S. Plume lift is captured and its drift to the SE -E.  The Carmel River Valley will be directly affected tonight with degraded AQ from late evening until late morning. AQ will improve around 11:00 AM. The NAM modeled the PBL at 600 m. This was 400 m less than yesterday’s PBL. Today’s transport winds were WNW 10 - 15 mph.  This lowering of the smoke layer already under an inversion but with better horizontal transport will support night smoke accumulation in the Coastal Range and the San Joaquin Valley.

6.      IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/7 at 7:15 PM
This is yesterday’s Photo. The active fire mapping system was not accessible.  There was less but still active burning on the fire’s SE corner (Las Padres Dam). However, in the S middle portion, there was active short lived internal fire runs and on the SW corner (Big Sur) there was continued active burning from the fire and suppression effort.

With these developments Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valleys & their respective communities may have short term degraded AQ tonight through early morning.  Long term expectations are for AQ improvement.

Photo Infra-Red Flight 8/7.
IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified.  Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. The SW corner has the most intense heat. This is where the fire made its run and was followed up with a burnout operation. This will degrade AQ along the coast and into San Luis Obispo County. The other runs will degrade AQ in Carmel and Salinas Valleys. 

7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions are displayed for two time starts.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Hopkins Ridge ran from 0600 on August 8, 2016

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Hopkins Ridge ran from 1400 on August 8, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Comings Creek ran from 0600 on August 8, 2016.

24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Comings Creek ran from 1400 on August 8, 2016

8.     The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below.  Smoke concentrations were primarily near Big Sur and the eastern portion of the fire.  The Carmel Valley
and  Salinas Valleys were impacted today as was the San Joaquin and San Luis Obispo.

Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/8/16 PM. Smoke from Soberanes continued to move south & east.  1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.
9. Smoke transport winds were from WNW in the vertical profile.  The wind speeds were such that the plume traveled  significant distances down the coastline and inland. This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel Valley, Salinas Valley and coast line were impacted.   San Joaqin Valley was subjected to some smoke from this fire today.  Hopefully much of the smoke will stay aloft near at the bottom of the inversion

Important Note:
Morning marine layer will again erode back to the coast by mid-morning.  Temperatures will be within a few degrees of Monday’s values, except coastal Hwy 1 where temps may be slightly cooler. Ridge winds prevail from the Northwest with smoke transport to the east and south. Skies become mostly sunny south of Pt Sur. Humidity recoveries over the peaks will occur early in the night then gradually dry through sunrise.

Only minor day to day changes are expected with night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon.  High pressure ridge builds Thu-Fri with warming trend.

NAM Model is indicating the turning of transport wind direction. Transport winds will be Southerly. This will be monitored.

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