Air Basin: North Central Coast CAL FIRE IMT
4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 12th, 2016 Prepared
by: Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time 7:00 PM
Fire Status & Key Points:
1.
Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 70,610 acres and 55% containment.
2.
Burning expanded estimated growth by 773 acres.
3.
Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Saturday, August 13th is estimated at 1,500
Acres. This includes:
a.
500 acres free burning on the southern fire
perimeter (near Elephant Mtn.)
b.
500 acres free burning where the fire
crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
c.
500 acres from burnout operations
4. Extended
Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 10,000
acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical
options presented on August 9th. Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments,
this acreage can be considerably different.
It will be revised as necessary.
5. The
weather today was influenced by the marine layer and high pressure system.
The weather tomorrow
will be marine layer influenced and as it clears will be influenced by a north
wind. Higher temperatures and lower relative
humidity at higher elevation may increase combustion hence increasing smoke
production. Lower elevation
burning may continue to be smoldering combustion. It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the
surface in most area communities for at least another day.
6.
Infrared Fire Perimeter & MODIS Heat Signatures 8/12 at
6:00 PM
The
Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s S edge. Mop-up continues. The S
side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur in two locations.
These are significant emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel,
Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities. Northern
flow aloft will increase and will push smoke into communities in the south,
particularly Big Sur and northern San Luis Obispo county. Areas
of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated
heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources
of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations (if
conducted), continue to affect AQ in local communities.
7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red)
from point near Island Mtn. ran from 0600 on
August 12, 2016
24 Hour trajectory
for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red)
from point near Island Mtn. ran from 1400 on
August 12, 2016.
It is anticipated transport winds tomorrow will move
smoke south.
Photo: NOAA Hazard
Mapping System - 8/12/16 PM.
Image for
Soberanes Fire today.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3)
Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not
defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable
information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its
zone of influence.
9. Smoke transport
winds were from the south on the west side of the fire and from the northwest on the east side of
the fire, however this wind was very light and allowed
for drift at lower elevations that created hazy conditions throughout the
region. Nearly all
communities in the vicinity of the fire were impacted with smoke today. San Joaquin and northern San Luis Obispo county
were both impacted.
Important Note:
Saturday:
A compressed marine layer
will erode more quickly to the coast compared to previous days.
As usual, clouds will linger longer along the
Big Sur area.
Otherwise, Saturday will
be the hottest and driest day in about a week.
Winds will be more northerly through the day with the strongest winds
around Big Sur.
Low clouds will develop
again overnight, but mostly likely near northern Carmel and Big Sur. Humidities
above the marine layer will be very dry with little to no recovery.
Transport
winds will push smoke to the southeast.
Sunday: The warming and dryingtrend will be short lived as high
pressure weakens and a trough of low pressure returns.
The net result for the Soberanes Fire will be cooler
and wetter conditions beginning Sunday into next week.
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