Sunday, July 31, 2016

Sunday, July 31,2016 #Soberanes Fire Smoke Impact forecast #3

Smoke Impact Forecast #3 revision 01                               Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast                                                                    CAL Fire IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for July 31st, 2016                                                                            Prepared by:  Gary M. Curcio
Time: 12:35 PM                                                                                                            Air Resource Advisor
Smoke Synopsis:
Yesterday: The fire size increased by 4,435 acres. At the day’s end all stations recorded a Good-AQI level. The lone exception was Hollister (Moderate-AQI). Many stations did experience degraded air quality. This occurred for a time between 7 AM - 5 PM. Gilory recorded the poorest AQ at 7AM.
Today: Smoke impact will be somewhat similar to yesterdays. However, it is projected to experience degrading AQ at Carmel River School, Carmel Valley and Gonzales locations. The planned burnout has been delayed. It is now expected to take place on Monday. For the nearby coast and valleys, the marine layer still persists. Heaviest smoke will be in the Coastal Range with some smoke making its way into Carmel & Salinas Valleys. Carmel River School was experiencing an “Unhealthy” level as early as 1 AM. As we progress through the day AQ will improve and then decline late afternoon. There will still be upper level drift smoke impacting San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. The influence of the South/Southwest airflow remains. It is expected to affect northern communities (Carmel River, Carmel Valley, Salinas, Hollister & Gilroy).  
Tomorrow: Expect elevated smoke levels from the Soberanes Burnout operation. This will continued into the next day.

Air Quality Outlook:
Location
Yesterday
July 30th
Observed
Today
July 31st  
Forecasted
Tomorrow
August 1st 
Forecasted
Comments:  AQ is expected to degrade late afternoon and into the night.
Santa Cruz
Good
Good
Good

Gilory
Good
Good
Moderate

Hollister
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate

Salinas
Good
Good
Moderate

Toro Park

Good
Unhealthy SG

Monterey ARB
Good
Good
Unhealthy SG

Carmel River Sch
Good
Unhealthy SG
Unhealthy SG
Smoke levels are “Unhealthy” at 5 AM (7/31/16)
Carmel Valley
Good
Moderate
Moderate

Gonzales
Good
Moderate
Unhealthy SG

Soledad
Good
Good
Moderate

Greenfield
Good
Good
Moderate

King City
Good
Good
Moderate

Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.

AQI Category
(PM2.5 Āµg/m3)
Potential Health Impacts
Actions to Protect Yourself
Good (0-12)
Little or no health risk
None
Moderate (13-35)
Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.
Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)
Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.
People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
Unhealthy (56-150)

Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.
The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
Very Unhealthy
(151-250)
Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects
Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
Hazardous (>250)
The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.
The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion
    Learn more at:
                a) California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/
                b) Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/
                c) California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/

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