Thursday, August 11, 2016 - #Sobranes Fire Smoke Impact Forecast #14

Smoke Impact Forecast #14                                                                            Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Central Coast                                                                                                 CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 11, 2016                                                                                           Prepared by:  Steve Fraidenburg, ARA
Time: 08:00
                                                                                                                                                                     
Smoke Synopsis:

Yesterday: The Air Quality (AQ) continued to be impaired due to fire growth.  At days end Big Sur was the most severely impacted area. Carmel Valley and Pacific Grove continued to have unhealthy for sensitive group impacts to AQ.  All other communities monitored (with the exception of Santa Cruz and Gilroy) had moderate AQ.   Today: With warmer and drier weather conditions forecasted fire growth and interior burning, smoke production is expected to increase and AQ degrade further. Early morning smoke is being experienced by some, particularly Monterey, Carmel, Carmel Valley, Gonzales, King City and Lockwood. This has been factored into the AQ Table. Big Sur is expected to be Very Unhealthy.  Carmel Valley is expected to be unhealthy. Salinas, Hollister, San Juan Batista, Monterey, Toro Park, Fort Ord, Carmel, Gonzales, Soledad, and Greenfield are expected to be unhealthy for sensitive groups. Smoke is expected to continue impacting the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills. The northern San Luis Obispo County, especially coastal areas, are being affected by smoke. Changes to AQ today are results of continued burning, forecasted weather, and dispersion models. Tomorrow: High pressure building will continue to adversely affect AQ.  Smoke transport is expected to be similar to Thursday as well as impacts to those affected communities.

Air Quality Outlook:

Location		Yesterday August 10th Observed		Today August 11th    Forecasted	Tomorrow August 12th    Forecasted		Comments: Today- Times of impaired air quality are projected below. During these periods Air Quality can be variable.
Santa Cruz		Good		Moderate	Good		Smoke through the day with clearing in the evening
Gilroy		Good		Moderate	Good		Smoke through the day with clearing in the evening
Hollister		Moderate		Moderate	Good		Smoke through the day with clearing in the evening
Salinas		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Moderate		Smoke through the day with clearing in the evening
Toro Park		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Unhealthy SG		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Monterey ARB		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Unhealthy SG		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Carmel River Sch		Unhealthy SG		Unhealthy SG	Moderate		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Carmel Valley		Moderate		Unhealthy	Unhealthy		Smoke through the day and night
Gonzales		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Moderate		Smoke through the day and night
Soledad		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Moderate		Smoke through the day and night
Greenfield		Moderate		Unhealthy SG	Unhealthy SG		Smoke through the day and night
King City		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
SJ Baut		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke through the day with clearing in the evening
Fort Ord		No Data		Unhealthy SG	Unhealthy SG		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Big Sur		Very Unhealthy		Very Unhealthy	Very Unhealthy		Smoke through the day and night
Pacific Grove		Unhealthy SG		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Lockwood		Moderate		Moderate	Moderate		Smoke in morning, improving in the afternoon
Disclaimer:  Air quality predictions reflect only fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Sensitive individuals including people with asthma or heart disease, infants, children, pregnant women and older adults should take precautions to avoid exposure to smoke. If you experience health effects from smoke, contact your doctor or health professional. Observed & Forecasted Air Quality is based on the Air Quality Index using the 24 Hour Average.
*See Air Quality Index Table on next page
	AQI Category (PM2.5 µg/m3)		Potential Health Impacts			Actions to Protect Yourself
	Good (0-12)		Little or no health risk			None
	Moderate (13-35)		Air quality is acceptable for most. There may be moderate health concern for a small number of sensitive people.			Unusually sensitive people should consider reducing prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.
	Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (36-55)		Members of sensitive groups may experience health effects.  The general public is not likely to be affected.			People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults should reduce prolonged or heavy outdoor exertion.  Everyone else should limit prolonged or heavy exertion.
	Unhealthy (56-150)		Everyone may begin to experience more serious health effects.			The following groups should avoid all physical outdoor activity: People with heart or lung disease, children and older adults.  Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion.
	Very Unhealthy (151-250)		Triggers a health alert, everyone may experience more serious health effects			Everyone should avoid any outdoor exertion; people with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children should remain indoors.
	Hazardous (>250)		The entire population is even more likely to be affected by serious health effects.			The following groups should remain indoors and keep activity levels low: People with heart or lung disease; children and older adults. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion

Learn more at:

a)        California Air District: Monterey Bay Unified  http://mbard.org/air-quality/

b)        Soberanes Fire Information: Inciweb  http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4888/

c)         California Smoke Blog - http://californiasmokeinfo.blogspot.com/