Smoke Impact Summary #9 Soberanes Wildfire
Air Basin: North Center Coast CAL FIRE IMT 4 w/ USFS
Issued for August 6th, 2016 Prepared by: Gary M. Curcio ARA
Time 9:00 PM Steve Fraidenburg ARA (T)
Fire Status & Key Points:
1. Total fire acreage has been adjusted today at 55,682 acres.
2. Yesterday burnout operations expanded estimated growth by 1,956 acres.
3. Projected smoke emission impact for tomorrow, Saturday August 7th is still estimated at 2,100
Acres. This includes:
a. 700 acres for the Burnout operations on the east and southwest sides.
b. 700 acres free burning on the southern fire perimeter (near Uncle Sam Mtn)
c. 700 acres free burning where the fire crossed the South Fork of Little Sur
4. Extended Outlook: “future smoke emission acreage” is now estimated at 53,320 acres.
This figure was projected based on the tactical options presented on August 5th.
Depending on weather, fire behavior and suppression accomplishments,
this acreage can be considerably different. It will be revised as necessary.
5. The weather today supported opportunistic burnout operations through late afternoon.
The weather tomorrow will be better for burnouts & fire spread above the marine layer but
will impede burning below the marine layer. This lower elevation burning will increase
smoldering combustion. It is expected this will still degrade AQ at the surface in the
Salinas Valley and the Carmel Valley for another day.
Laureles Grade Rd. vantage point looking approximately S. Plume lift is captured and its drift to the SE. The Carmel River Valley will be directly experience degraded AQ from late evening until late morning. AQ will improve around 11:00 AM. The NAM modeled PBL was approximately 1500 m with T Winds at 10 mph. This would support a smoke plume with decent vertical rise but this did not materialize. Plume horizontal transport was poor.
6. IR Fire Perimeter & Modis Heat Signatures 8/5 at 7:15 PM
The Photo identifies active burning on the fire’s SE corner (Las Padres Dam) & the SW corner (Big Sur) where major burnout operations were conducted & will continue tomorrow. Mop-up continues. The S side (center area) of the fire growth continues to occur. These are major emission sources. They continue to impact Big Sur, Carmel, Salinas and San Joaquin Valley & their respective communities.
Photo left: IR Flight from 8/5
IR heat intensities from the previous night are identified. Areas of intense heat are red shading. Scattered heat is yellow shading. Isolated heat spots are red dots. These heat intensities are still numerous. They are sources of emissions and in combination with free burning and burnout operations, continue to affect AQ in local communities.
7. Soberanes Fire Trajectories from two major sources of emissions
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Los Padres Dam ran from 0600 on August 6, 2016
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meter (red) from point near Los Padres Dam ran from 1400 on August 6, 2016.
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Jackson Creek ran from 0600 on August 6, 2016.
24 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Jackson Creek ran from 1400 on August 6, 2016
8. The Soberanes Fire smoke production and its long range drift are displayed below. It is anticipated that this smoke will remain ESE orientation.
Photo: NOAA Hazard Mapping System - 8/6/16 PM.
Smoke from Soberanes continued to move south & east but did not travel as far as past days.
1) Green = light, 2) Yellow = medium & 3) Red = dense (only shown in the left picture). These colored layers are not defined by their elevation above ground. However, they do provide valuable information concerning the horizontal extent of wildfire’s smoke plume and its zone of influence.
9. Smoke transport winds were Westerly becoming NW.
The windspeeds were such that the plume did not travel the distance seen yesterday.
This was captured in the NOAA Visible satellite imagery. The Big Sur, Carmel, and Salinas Valley were impacted. San Joaqin had less impact as well.
Marine layer is expected to be at 2,000 feet over the fire area. Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity will return. Smoke production is expected to increase and air quality most likely will degrade.
Monday: Weather conditions are forecast to be similar to Sunday. Smoke production and air quality will continue to be affected.
4 Hour trajectory for altitudes: 10 meters (green), 100 meters (blue), and 250 meters (red) from point near Los Padres Dam ran from 0600 on August 6, 2016